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THE pHAT mAN'S PICK IS:::
The suspense is killing me..
Phat Man will only be putting out one final pick now that the tribes are merged.  Less people means that he might get one right eventually.
Immunity Challenge Winner:  Alicia
Get the Boot:  Nick
Will Ogakor stick together? Yes, but there should be some good fights this week.
Darkhorse alliance that could take control this week: Jerri, Amber, Alicia, Elisabeth, & Rodger
Amber's Danager Rating:  3, up from a 1 last week, because there is 1 less person, but little chance.
New Amber Danger Rating:  This is a ranking of 1 to 10. 10 being she will ge the boot, and 1 means we have no worries about her getting the boot this week.
He has been sick, and is weak! A deadly combination in the Outback.
Once again, can you tell I like the picture of Amber running around with that little top on.  A very nice picture, we can only hope that the rumor about her listening to Hugh's offer to pose in playboy is true.

Now to Show # 8, this is the half way point to the show.  Actual I heard last week that CBS as added a review show which will be coming up next week or the following week to extend Survivor 2 longer. They want it to extend further into May for the Sweeps period.  Talk about selling out!  1st we have sponsors for each of the reward challenges, next we have reruns for a reality show, this is getting ridiculous.  I am truly glad that this is the only one of these shows I will ever watch since I know Amber.  After she is booted, I am done with these shows.

CBS showed us a lot of Jerri in the preview. They showed how Colby said he lied to her, and how Elisabeth figured out that Ogakor was not as close as they seem.  So will Ogakor blow up this week, and run for the broken Kucha tribe trying to get enough votes to screw their enemies? It is a possibility, but I don't think i will happen. Once again , CBS is playing with us, yes Ogakor will fight, but they will realize that staying together at least one more week is in their best interest. 

IF I am Jerri and I am worried about getting kicked off, it is still in my best intrested, long term to get rid of 1 kucha member 1st.  If they do that, next show she could take her vote along with her puppy dog Amber and Join with two of the Kucha (Rodger & Elisabeth) and pick off the rest of the tribes members. At this point the # of people would be 8, so it would be 4 vs. 4.  However Keith and Colby are easy targets because they have a ton of votes against them.  Jerri could get her group to pick those two off in back to back to back weeks.  What defense would Colby, Keith, Tina, Alicia have (assuming Nick goes this week), the answer is NONE! 

The only member of the new alliance to have any votes against her is Jerri. If Jerri was really smart she would suck up to Keith for 2 more week's, then when their is 2 Kucha's and 5 Ogakor's left her and Amber would win over the final 2 Kucha's and get rid of the rest of Ogakor.  But she is too stuck up to kiss Keith's butt for that long.

So if Ogakor does stick together, then there two biggest targets should Nick and Alicia. Both are the strongest of the 4 remaining Kucha members. If I was Ogakor I would leave Rodger there till the end since he obviously will not win any physical challenges. 

So why did I pick Nick over Alicia. Simple, I think Nick is down and out. He has been sick and I think mental he can not take this game anymore. He has never been very aggressive, and in this game that will only take you so far.  The key is obviously the immunity challenge, both Nick and Alicia should know that if they lose they have a good chance of note being around for the next one. I think Alicia has the physical strength and most of all the mental strength to take this week's challenge. 

Thus leaving Nick to the vultures.  Ogakor will pick him apart and send him to the beach for his 8 week vacation. 

Keep a watch on the women of survivor.  Right now the women out number the men 5-4, I could see an alliance between all of them lead by Jerri and Alicia. Their biggest problem would be getting Tina to go along. However, they would not need her vote to get rid of either Keith or Colby because of the votes they have against each other. The more I write about that, the more I am believing it.  I can see Jerri figuring that is a way to get rid of Keith this week.


Anyway that is my pick, for what is worth..  Go Amber