Dear Netters:
One thing is consistent in this war - each side accuses the other of starting attacks. What is indisputable however, is that Eritrean forces have pushed 20 km or more into Ethiopian territory at the Zalambessa front. It seems to me that the Eritreans have been doing virtually all the attacking in this area. Claims that Ethiopia provoked them, and that they are just counterattacking do not appear credible for the following reasons:
1. Territorial Claims: The interesting thing is that Ethiopia does not claim Eritrean territory here. It is Eritrea that claims the town of Zalambessa. It seems that capturing Zalambessa has always been a goal of the Eritreans while Ethiopia's intention has simply been to defend the existing border. There was simply no reason for Ethiopia to mount offensive actions into Eritrea on June 2 - the day Eritrea captured the town.
2. Topography: The topography indicates that it would be suicidal for Ethiopia to attack Eritrea from Zalambessa. The border line is uphill from the town, and the high ground to the north apparently lies within Eritrea. For the Eritreans however, Zalambessa must have been an irresistable, very exposed target.
3. Overall Strategy: The Eritreans clearly hope to score a quick and decisive victory. In this regard, Adigrat becomes the logical prize. By capturing Adigrat, the Eritreans would cut northern Tigrai in two, and threaten the Badime front from the east. The Eritrean capture of Zalambessa appears to have been part of a general plan to strike deep into Ethiopia before the Ethiopian army could be fully mobilized. Eritrea's supply lines are very short - only 60 miles to Asmara over paved roads. In addition, they have been preparing for war for a long time. They were able to mobilize large forces and deploy them at the front before Ethiopia even began calling up the militia. It is highly unlikely that the Ethiopian forces decided to attack on June 2nd while mobilization was still underway.
Similarily, the battle of June 10, (like that of June 2) appears to have been an Eritrean attack (notwithstanding Sam Kiley's fanciful accounts provided to him by Eritreans). Ethiopia would not have planned to recapture Zalambessa at this time and expose its troops to the Eritrean artillery located on the hills just inside Eritrea. Instead, Ethiopia will likely mount a counter-offensive only when enough forces are available to not only re-take Zalambessa, but also push into Eritrea and set up a proper defensive line occupying the high ground. Ethiopia is currently not ready for this sort of attack.
Conclusion:
The Eritreans have been initiating the attacks along the Zalambessa front. The June 9 battle was a serious setback for the Eritrean war strategy.
- Dagmawi