ANALYSIS-Peace a long way off for Horn of Africa
By David Fox; Reuters, July 15, 1999
NAIROBI, July 15 (Reuters) -
The ink is barely dry on the Organisation of African Unity's plan to end the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the war of words has already resumed.
On Wednesday Ethiopia and Eritrea both said they had accepted the OAU's proposals to end the border war -- a plan launched during the African body's annual summit in Algiers.
Less than 24 hours later, both sides said they doubted the sincerity or commitment of the other and diplomats and analysts suspect genuine peace is still a long way off.
``They don't even seem able to agree on what they have agreed to,'' said one Kenyan diplomat. ``They are both likely to interpret the fine print of the plan in very different ways.
Ethiopia and Eritrea first came to blows in May last year and what started as a border dispute rapidly expanded into a bloody war of attrition fought by tens of thousands of infantry hunkered down in trenches across the frontier.
If the casualty claims made by both sides are to be believed, over 100,000 troops from both sides have been killed and many more wounded or captured.
But for Ethiopia and Eritrea to bury the hatchet may take more than just a peace plan from the OAU, diplomats said.
``It may take a generation or more before there will be genuine forgiveness and trust,'' one Western diplomat said. ``There is a lot of bitterness...it isn't just a case of signing a peace deal and going back to business as usual.''
OAU Secretary-General Salim Ahmed Salim told reporters in Algiers that both sides had agreed to the new, revised framework agreement and further mediation, but admitted ``there are different interpretations.''
The deal should see armies from both sides withdraw from position held before May 6 last year.
Then, Eritrea captured a considerable swathe of territory which had been under Ethiopian administration, but Ethiopia has since retaken some positions and also captured territory which was formerly Eritrean.
It is not clear if a peacekeeping force will monitor the withdrawals, but the next step is for independent arbiters to adjudicate on which land belongs to whom.
Territory has been in dispute since 1993 when Eritrea took independence from Ethiopia following a long seccessionist struggle which ended with the overthrow of Mengistu Haile Mariam.
The Eritrean People's Liberation Front and the Tigrean People's Liberation Front formed the vanguard of the force that toppled Mengistu, but the former allies -- who are now the effective governments in the respective countries -- are now also mortal enemies.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on his return from Algiers that Eritrea must accept without preconditions the African peace plan
``We think this is a completely principled and completely correct package,'' he told reporters, but then immediately accused Eritrea of lacking commitment.
``They responded ... in typical EPLF fashion,'' he said. They gutted out the substance of the package, added all sorts of preconditions and then said they had accepted,'' he said.
In Eritrea, the government expressed concern that Ethiopia had not yet formally agreed to the peace plan after Meles said he accpted the deal but also needed to get parliamentary approval.
Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki immediately accused Meles of wasting time.
``It is an excuse to avoid taking a decision that was supposed to be taken here,'' he said.
``It isn't the best start,'' said a regional diplomat of the latest exchange. ``But I suppose there is not much else to hope for.''
(Additional reporting By Alexander Last in Asmara and Tsegaye Tadesse in Addis Ababa)