 About the Writer Previous "Chaat" 1996-98 archieves 1. Game of Sailboats 2. Two Strong Poles |
|
---------------------------------------------------------
"Old Congressmen of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but chains". This will be the slogan of Congress party for coming days. The world of Parliament is divided into two poles: the BJP and her friends at the Arctic and Congress - UF on the Antarctic. Crossing the equator is difficult, but moving on the same pole is a child’s play.
The common bond between Congress and the parties in United Front (UF) is that they think they are secularist. But there is still stronger a bond that all of them (except the communists) were Congressmen at one time or the other. Whenever they need to join Congress party, they proudly call it ‘home-coming’.
Congress was in power in the Union and the states for almost two decades. This long period made power their natural habitat. After Nehru and since `70s, Congress’s one-party-dominance era was over. Congressmen left the grand old party and went to dominant parties of the time whenever they could find some noble excuse. Seldom has a Congressman joined a retiring party. As other parties became near and dear to power, and Congressmen, like sailboats turned with the wind. In this wind-surfing Congressmen had an advantage over others. Others had ideological pretences which made sailing difficult. Congress never had an ideology and partymen had no hitches.
As of now, if Congress is to gamble for majority, it will open its cards on the-most-vulnerable in the UF. And the most vulnerable is those who have left Congress most recently, namely Tamil Manila Congress (TMC). The TMC was formed when the Congress refused to part company with the extremely corrupt and infamous AIADMK. The politically wise people in the Tamilnadu state unit of Congress formed the TMC. They were wise because they came in power. Congress stayed with Jailalitha’s AIADMK despite the anti-Jailalitha wave. Congress unfortunately did not understand the wind and did not turn the sails. It is important that those who knew where to turn the sails, formed the TMC. If Congress now bets for the throne in Delhi, the wise TMC will again turn its sails.
The tug between the Congress and the UF is over the issue of removing the DMK from the Front. DMK was a partner of the TMC in last elections. See the history: in 1967, C.Rajgopalachari(again an ex-Congressman) formed an anti-Congress front in the state of Tamilnadu, which was completely dominated by the DMK. Since then, (30 years) DMK and Congress have been arch-rivals in Tamilnadu state politics. So, it will not be very difficult for the ex-Congressmen of TMC to go back to Congress and leave DMK. In politics, there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only the interests are permanent.
There is another set of sailors. They have no chance of coming back to the House if elections come through. They want this Lok Sabha to complete its tenure, so that they get pensions. Come what may, they will support any group who claims government. Congress has 144 seats in the LS and needs 128 more to win. Whereas the BJP and allies number 192 and need 80 to win. It is likely that President will invite the BJP first. If BJP fails, then only Congress will get a chance. The problem for Congress is: if the wind blows toward BJP, how to hold the sails. If Congress strikes a better bargain, the sailboats will turn to it. Now it is left to the market forces to decide : whom will the MPs sail (or sell) themselves to : the BJP or the Congress.
-- Milind Thatte (01 Dec 97)
------------------------------------------------------------
Toward Consolidation of Polarisation
Since last eighteen years, India has seen the problem of tri-polarity: the INC ( Indian National Congress), the BJP, the left and the leftovers of Congress. BJP and INC had confirmed policies: they were the real poles. The third front was a fictitious pole. The third front, that is the conglomeration of the leftovers of Congress and the Leftist parties had nothing under their hats. Their governments were erected for purposes of others. VP Singh government (1989) stood on the BJP support, and fell when the BJP found them uncomfortable for its programmes. The next: Chandra Shekhar government stood till Congress found them useful. Deve Gowda and Gujaral governments did not even have a smoke screen of non-Congressism. They were Congress tools for keeping BJP out of power. Congress threw them like disposable tissues. And see what has happened to them -- JD was the largest constituent of UF, they have saved only six Lok Sabha seats. (Two out of the six: namely Gujral, and Paswan have won because BJP-bloc did not oppose them). When two elephants fight or make love, it is the grass that suffers. That is the fate of any third force.
This election has bestowed the country with two positive developments. First, for the first time in Indian history, we have a government that is 'different'. Congress and Congress-clones ruled the country for last fifty years. JP, JD, NF, UF, Congress (I), Congress(O) all had come from the same school. It is BJP that is different. BJP was floated by Rashtriya Swayam-sevak Sangh (RSS) activists. BJP started with "eternal humanism" of Pt.Deendayal Upadhyay, changed it to "Gandhian socialism", and then to aggressive Hindutva. Though changing with political pragmatism, BJP still paraded some ideology. Leftist parties were also different, they were either pro-Soviet (CPI) or pro-Chinese (CPI-M). Mutual hostilities and a dying ideology India ruined them. The Left withered and the Right came closer to the middle path. This is the second plus point that our democracy has scored in this election.
BJP which was quite a loner, has gathered many friends. It is becoming "a Congress", that is, a conference of various opinions. BJP has smoothened its stance and has arrived at a common minimum program involving co-operation from all its allies. This nature of consensus politics within the bloc will prove healthy for our democracy. A similar consensus should develop in the rest of them. Parties that are against BJP will have to turn pro-Congress, for Congress is the only alternative to BJP. The longer the BJP rules, this process of unification of Congressmen and ex-Congressmen and ex-ex-Congressmen will be certain. Within next five years, the process of bipolarisation between Congress-led bloc and BJP-led bloc should be complete. A small negligible third bloc keeping equidistant from both blocs will not make much difference. Even if they wish to, they will not be able to maintain a good number, because they will face extinction from public memory. Two identities: pro-BJP or pro-Congress will be the choice. It will be too difficult to be anti-Congress as well as anti-BJP at the same time. Pro-BJP will be a synonym of anti-Congress and vice versa. No third identity will attract any buyers. Therefore, the prudent among them -- like Mamta and George -- will choose one. Those who do not, will be seen in the Parliament with no role to perform -- like Chandra Shekhar.
It will be too simplifying to believe that the third front will completely sink into oblivion and there will be no uneasy honeymoons in the Parliament. The big powers have to learn the coalition table manners. Congress leaders are used to living in the past. Many of them do not realise that they cannot reach the magic figure of 273 in Lok Sabha all by themselves. As Sharad Pawar had put it : Congressmen are often like the landlords (Thakurs) in villages who have lost lands in ceiling acts, but still think they have all of it.
BJP has never had any experience with so many allies (18), even they have a criss-cross trail ahead. Hope that BJP and Congress consolidate their blocs and the country will rid of the hangover of hung parliaments imparted by the Third Front governments.
-- Milind Thatte (23 Mar 98)
------------------------------------------------------------
About the Writer
Milind Thatte
Masters in Political Science from Mumbai University
Graduated from Symbiosis Institute of Mass Communication
Wrote a column of political analysis for bharatonline.com. Was widely read and cross-linked.
Wrote political satire for Local newspapers in Mumbai
Teaches "Internet Journalism" in the School of Journalism in Mumbai University
Widely traveled in rural India, especially the tribal belt from southwest to northeast
Speaks three mainstream Indian languages and three tribal dialects. Sanskrit, German, and English are additional.
Write to Me