Some hints for navigating the current real estate market:
These excerpts seem germane today even though they come from my November 20, 2002 Report entitled:
Is The Manhattan Real Estate Bubble About To Burst?
(Link to full report)
Twenty years ago I asked a friend who was a gold trader at Goldman Sachs, "How on earth do you know when gold prices will go up or down?" Obviously he was making a lot of money so I just assumed he had special powers to predict the gold market.
He looked at me for a few seconds, then said, "Are you kidding? I have no idea. I just trade up when the market is going up and trade down when it is going down." When I recovered from such an obvious answer, I sputtered out an akward, "Oh."
It took me a little longer to see how that applied to me in my life. Obviously my friend did very well trading gold and he had no idea when the market was going up or down. So in any marketplace, are we at an advantage if we have a lot of information about the market? . . .
More to the point, what should you do? What about your particular situation? I am assuming that you - like me- do not have a crystal ball for the future. Will we ever have enough information to sell or buy at the right time? Well, of course not. Only by sheer luck. So how do we operate successfully in the Manhattan real estate market without feeling like we are playing the lottery?
I say we would be wise to operate like my friend the gold trader who I mentioned in the first paragraph. You need to operate for your own account and be crystal clear on what your "trading" goals are. Do you plan to buy or sell real estate primarily as an investment? Or does real estate to you mean your home first and foremost and not a whole lot more?
Depending where you are as a Manhattan real estate buyer, seller or renter, here are some obvious solutions. Is real estate an investment for you? If so and you own your own home whether it is an apartment or a brownstone, and it has increased in value since you bought it, sell it now. You want to make a profit, do it by selling now. Will the market go higher? Maybe. But why make yourself crazy? If you can make a decent profit by cashing out now, do it.But what if your home that you own is your home first and foremost and not an investment as your stocks and bonds are investments? Then keep it as long as you love it. Too simplistic for you? Maybe. But maybe you are making the whole thing too complicated.
How about hedging your bet? If you think that this is the end of the long-standing bull market in residential real estate, sell your home now and rent for a couple of years to see how things shake out.
If you are in the market to buy, no matter what the market conditions, you will find the right property. One thing that is
true about Manhattan real estate is that there is extraordinary variety and there is always a property of opportunity. It might take longer to find in some markets but you will find it if you keep looking.
Dear Friend-
If you or someone you know is interested in selling or buying an apartment or townhouse please phone me.
I will give you - and them - the highest level of personal service.
My commitment is to get you the best price for your property with the right buyer as simply and as quickly as possible.
Please feel free to phone me about any real estate question.
Sincerely,
Robert
Robert Agee • Associate BrokerCarol Quatrone Realty
Licensed Real Estate Broker
502 LaGuardia Place, 2nd Floor
New York, NY 10012
<ragee@nyc.rr.com>
212-475-2006 Office
212-202-6498 Fax
917-721-2442 Mobile
