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BA deal with Iberia flies in the face of crisis
British Airways may be a late arrival to the merger frenzy, but its lucrative agreement with the Spanish flagship carrier could help it to scale new heights even in the midst of a north face recon severe downturn. The question now is whether chief executive Willie Walsh can also bring a US airline on board. Tim Webb reports
Tim Webb
The Observer,
Sunday August 3 2008
Last Wednesday evening, Virgin Atlantic directors and their guests bopped along to Kylie Minogue's rousing rendition at the O2 arena in east London of one of her best-known hits: 'I should be so lucky.' But the song would really have been more apt build a monster face for Willie Walsh, boss of arch-rival British Airways. Hours earlier, the Irishman had touched down in London after announcing at a press conference in Madrid that BA and Spanish flag carrier Iberia had entered merger talks to create Europe's largest airline. Walsh also told The Observer last week that an announcement 'one way or the other' barack obama wont face american flag about a partnership with American Airlines would be made within a fortnight. BA has been cosying up face bumps to the pair for the best part of a decade. Its most recent attempt at a Spanish union floundered last autumn when BA and private equity group TPG pulled the plug on a joint bid. US regulators have also been blocking BA's attempts for the past five java server face sample application years to set up an alliance with American.
Peter Morris, chief economist of Ascend consultancy, referring to Tuesday's announcement about Iberia, is still sceptical about the deal. 'BA has had a mirrored motorcycle helmet face shields chequered dating history in airline mergers, and has never quite reached the altar yet,' he says. 'Now the number of eligible dance partners in Europe is much reduced and Iberia is the only major attractive candidate left.'
That might sound a little harsh, but if Walsh manages to pull this pair of deals off in quick succession, BA would be very lucky indeed.
These are dramatic days for the airline industry, not least BA. On Friday, the airline announced that its profits for the three months to June had teke face mask plummeted by 90 per cent compared with the previous year. It reported a doubling in fuel pie in the face game costs, forcing the airline to axe many of its long services this winter, as well as some short-haul routes entirely, to cut costs. Walsh declared: 'We are in the worst trading environment the industry has ever faced.'
Not that Walsh sounded too downbeat when he was talking to The Observer later in the day. Asked how good his Spanish was, he joked: 'Muy bien' (that's 'very good'). Not that he is going 'native' with the Iberia deal in the offing: at the Madrid press conference, the Irishman mischievously wore a red, white and blue tie to emphasise the 'British' in British Airways.
BA has been talking to its counterparts in Madrid for the past six weeks about the tie-up. Spanish stock market rules dictate that a company must make an early declaration about any deal in the offing, prompting last week's announcement. The urgency contrasts starkly with last year's protracted takeover talks over Iberia, which dragged on for nearly the entire year.
It also underlines the severity of the downturn afflicting the industry, which is forcing airlines to seek mergers to cut costs and maintain their market share. Gert Zonneveld, analyst from Panmure Gordon, says: 'There's no way you can offset an annual £3bn fuel bill with a merger with Iberia, so it's wrong to say that it's a defensive move. But it's easier to do a deal when times are tough as investors tend to be more rational.'
However, there is a long way to go before the union can be consummated: Walsh told analysts on Friday that it could take between six and 12 months to make sure all regulators, authorities and unions are fully on board and signed up.
BA would undoubtedly take the lead role in any merger, with shareholders retaining about two-thirds of the combined group. It is likely that Walsh would take the top job. For both airlines, the deal is about saving money and trying to eke out new revenues by combining operations. On their own, BA and Iberia face an uncertain future: Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have already undergone successful mergers recently, giving them far greater economies of scale and reach. At the short-haul end of the market, both face increasing competition from the low cost carriers like Ryanair.
Combined, the two airlines would serve 60 million passengers annually, making it Europe's largest, with a fleet of almost 500 planes. The two carriers have a combined market value of about £3.5bn and together employ more than 60,000 people. They are also a good fit: Iberia, because of Spain's colonial history, dominates routes between Europe and South and Central America. BA is particularly strong in North America and Asia.
Analysts estimate that the two airlines could save between £100m and £400m annually. Neither has gone into details, but they could combine headquarters, back office functions, marketing teams and support staff like aircraft maintenance crew.
Analysts estimate that this development could result in about 7,000 job losses. But because both airlines are heavily unionised, this may prove impossible. Partly as a sop to unions, both airlines have been keen to stress that they will keep their separate brands and identities and that pilots and cabin crew will not be pooled.
Possibly even more lucrative is the extra money to be made from combining operations. The two airlines already cooperate closely: they are part of the Oneworld alliance and have synchronised their flights between Heathrow and Madrid and Barcelona. This allows the airlines to plan connecting services for passengers. With a formal merger, however, the pair would be able to do this on a far greater scale.
Both airlines have cited the merger of Air France and KLM as an example to emulate. The two merged in 2004 and retained their separate identities while also managing not to antagonise the unions.
Walsh also hopes to sign off on a long awaited alliance with American Airlines soon. The two airlines have been co-operating on schedules for some time, but US regulators have blocked them from forging a more formal alliance which would allow them to jointly market their transatlantic services. But, assuming that both carriers receive the necessary anti-trust immunity - and based on their track record there is no guarantee of this - Walsh has made plain that he wants to pursue a full merger which would create a three-airline giant. Commenting on the Iberia announcement, Walsh did not tire of telling journalists and analysts: 'This is only the beginning.'
In many ways, BA is making up for lost time. It has west philadelphia girl gets face slashed been late to join the merger frenzy that has gripped the airline sector. Air France and KLM tied the knot in 2004, with Swiss Air and Lufthansa following a year later. Air France-KLM also came close to gobbling up crippled Italian carrier Alitalia earlier this year.
The US airlines have been even keener to fall into each other's arms. In April, Delta Airlines and Northwest Airlines announced plans to create the largest carrier in the world, with a combined fleet of almost 800 planes.
But unlike other industries, the airline business - ironically, given that it is by face to face artist - sevendust its very nature international - is still a long way from being truly global. Most countries outside the EU have bilateral agreements with other countries dictating which airlines can fly between the two countries; it is far from an open market for new entrants. Most governments also block their national carrier from being taken over by a foreign company, which is why the Spanish government's support for the BA-Iberia merger is crucial.
The so-called 'Open Skies' agreement between the EU and the US is supposed to do away with many of these archaic laws governing travel between the two continents, and BA hopes, will help smooth the way for its AA partnership. Before it was introduced earlier this year, only four airlines including BA were permitted fly between Heathrow - which handles most transatlantic flights in Europe - and the US. But now any airline can fly to and from the two continents. Controversially, the US won a two-year moratorium on opening its own domestic market to European airlines. Until then, only US carriers can fly domestic routes.
Talks began this summer on 'phase two' of the agreement, which would open up the US domestic market. It would also lift restrictions preventing European airlines from owning more than a quarter of their US counterparts.
With the US showing increasing signs of embracing economic protectionism, however, the Europeans are not holding their breath for an agreement. If the US does not keep its side of the bargain, it would probably scupper the whole Open Skies deal and take everyone back to square one.
There are other examples of the liberalisation of the industry. India and the UK, for example, recently signed their own Open Skies agreement to allow any airline to fly between the two countries.
Douglas McNeill, analyst from Blue Oar Securities, says: 'We are heading in the direction where there are much fewer regulatory obstacles to consolidation. Open Skies is a good example. But it's hard to envisage a world where all these bilateral deals will be swept away entirely - some countries will prefer to maintain their outdated mindsets.'
And on the subject tee face fuck of consolidation, Morris from Ascend Consultancy points out, consolidation in itself is no panacea, as the newly merged US airlines continue to struggle.
While Walsh treads the tightrope of negotiating with motorcycle face masks US and Spanish authorities about the deals - not to mention the unions - he has the small responsibility of keeping BA in the air in the meantime. This year so far, 25 airlines have collapsed. Walsh warns: 'You are going to see more airlines go bust. If you look around, there are a lot of airlines out there that have not been profitable in the past few years.'
On Friday BA also said it was raising fares and axing about 160 flights each week this winter.
McNeill from Blue Oar Securities says there is no guarantee that these flights will be reinstated if there is no change in oil prices and the consumer downturn continues. 'There is nothing automatic about this round of capacity reductions being reversed within the foreseeable future,' he says. 'You can't rule out further capacity cuts next summer.'
With BA preparing for life rate my face at $150 a barrel, getting lucky with Iberia and American Airlines cannot come soon enough for Walsh and his airline.
Challenges BA has faced
Gate Gourmet
It has almost become a tradition for some form of industrial action or crisis to disrupt BA's operations at Heathrow in the summer. August 2005 was no exception, when hundreds of flights were cancelled after resmed ultra mirage full face mask some 1,000 ground staff walked out. They were protesting after catering firm Gate Gourmet, which supplied the airline, sacked 800 workers.
Terrorist threat
The following August, and Heathrow - BA's base, where it owns almost half the take-off slots - was in chaos again. This time, a terrorist plot to smuggle explosives inside hand luggage and blow up planes over the Atlantic was uncovered. Airports operator BAA unblock face book forced passengers to check in all hand luggage and a less than impressed BA was forced to cancel some 700 flights.
Cross controversy
In October 2006, BA unwittingly found itself at the centre of a row over religious freedom - and earned itself a public rebuke from Tony Blair. BA had refused to allow devout Catholic Nadia Eweida, a check-in worker, to wear a cross on her necklace to work. The airline eventually relented as churchmen, Ann Widdecombe and consumers threatened a boycott.
Fuel price-fixing
BA was fined a record £270m in August 2007 after it admitted colluding with other airlines to fix fuel surcharge levels. The fine was particularly galling for BA as arch-rival Virgin Atlantic - which had held the talks with BA over price-fixing between 2004 and 2006 - had shopped it to the Office of Fair Trading, earning itself immunity from prosecution in the process.
Opening of T5
BA's in-house publication, published the day of the opening of Terminal 5 on 27 March, was headlined 'Dawn of a new era'. Inside it boasted: 'A chance to free face fucking movies put the fun back into flying' and 'How baggage and check-in will speed up airport journey'. The reality was furious passengers contending with more than 350 cancelled flights and almost 20,000 lost bags over the following week.
Iberia merger
After almost a decade of talks over co-operation, BA last week announced that it was in advanced merger negotiations with the Spanish airline Iberia. The deal - if it face straddle story goes through - would create Europe's largest airline.
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