Editorial, The Courier Mail 11th September 1998
The failure of the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister to insist that Liberal and National candidates must put One Nation last on their preference lists will increasingly haunt them over the next few weeks. Already it appears certain that several National MPs and candidates in Queensland and New South Wales will effectively give their preferences to One Nation, by putting One Nation candidates above the ALP. They argue the ALP is the "enemy" not One Nation. They are wrong. It is true that in the current election, the contest for government is between the Coalition led by John Howard and the Labor party led by Kim Beazley. But for the National party in particular, this election is not just about which party will hold the reins of government. For the Nationals it is a matter of survival of a party which had its origins 75 years ago.
The Queensland election showed that the fundamental challenge raised by One nation is to the National Party's claim to represent the bush. Although Labor suffered most at One Nation's hands - it lost six seats to One Nation, while the Coalition lost five - all but three of One Nation's gains occurred as a result of the allocation of favourable preferences from the Coalition. If the Coalition had adopted the same anti-One Nation preference policy as Labor, One nation would currently be a small rump in the Queensland Parliament, with no power. Several National MPs have indulged in a serious flirtation with One Nation or its policies. As a result, they may be able to save their individual seats. But their nod of approval for One Nation will have disastrous effects on the National Party elsewhere, and on the senior Coalition Party, the Liberals. Voters in the metropolitan centres of the nation will be unsympathetic with the alliance (as it will be seen to be) with One nation, and will punish the Liberals, in much the same way that Liberal voters in Brisbane reacted in the Queensland election.
The preference issue will hang around for the remainder of the campaign, and is likely to build in the last week. One Nation's David Oldfield has made it clear that the party's official preference list, to be decided this week, will not necessarily be reflected in how-to-vote cards to be handed out on October 3. The media will rightly ignore the smokescreen and concentrate on the real deals being done by One Nation. Those deals could be the focus of media attention in the days before the election, In the Queensland election, Labor had more to lose from One Nation's intervention in the campaign because of the nature of its marginal seats. In the federal poll, it is the Coalition which has most marginal seats at risk. Self-interest should dictate to the Coalition that it should have no preference deals with One Nation. And as the National's former leader, Ian Sinclair, also has pointed out, the national interest also should require the Coalition to put One Nation last.