Sometime in the future, your home computer may put your local record store out of business -- you'll be able to buy your favorite music from on-line servers, either as single songs or entire albums. The music will either be streamed through the Internet in high-quality sound or burned onto your own custom CD.
Sound good? Well, it's not quite reality yet. While downloadable music files are starting to hit the Internet, relatively few consumers have good computer sound systems, and even fewer own CD recorders. That's why old-fashioned record-store owners aren't running for cover just yet.
"Music downloading is a threat, but a pretty long-term threat," says Newbury Comics co-owner Mike Dreese. He says many consumers are already suffering high-tech burnout, and the arrival of more recording devices will only make it worse.
"Sooner or later people will have their recordable blank DVDs (digital versatile discs), which will be attached to their Web-TV receivers. But those devices aren't out there yet."
"At the moment half the world doesn't even record anything on their VCR, because it's a major annoyance to get the cables set up right," he continued. "You reach a certain level of sophistication and realize it's not worth the aggravation. The first time you kick out a speaker wire it's going to be during the Super Bowl, and you're going to get ticked off."
Dreese forsees another problem: Once CDs can be downloaded from the Net, some smart hackers are going to figure out how to get the music without paying. "People who are incredibly wired are also wiseguys by nature," he says. "And they'll totally run amok. The big labels are always going to try to control the process, and they always manage to muck things up. The only outstanding successes are always going to be the really innovative artists."
One such artist is rock maverick Todd Rundgren, who has already taken the digital plunge. Currently without a record label, Rundgren is selling directly to fans via his own Web site (www.tr-i.com), where he's making new songs available either in downloadable form or through the mail on CD. And he's seeing an equal demand for both.
"So far people are wanting all of it," Rundgren said last week. "But as we move to a less hard-core audience, people may get more choosy with their money and decide which they prefer."
"Each way has its own advantages: The on-line idea has the immediacy, and also the community aspects. You can share a space with other fans -- people who are interested in the same music that you are. But you don't get the same quality and portability that you get from a CD."
Still, Rundgren says he believes the CD's days are numbered. "Eventually, you'll be able to virtualize your entire music collection. The music will be on the servers of the copyright holders, and you'll just order it up when you want to hear it. Your stereo won't have a CD player, it will have a card slot in front with all your account information. It's all moving toward there being no moving parts."
At the moment, more major artists are concerned about keeping their music off the Internet than on it. Oasis recently shut down a fan site that offered free downloads of their songs. David Bowie won some headlines in late 1996 for his Internet-only release of "Telling Lies," but it was mainly a promotional gimmick for his "Earthling" album -- which hit stores a few weeks later and included the song.
But smaller labels are welcoming the chance to get their music on line. The Minneapolis label Twin Tone led the pack by digitizing its catalog, and others are jumping aboard: Ex-Pixies leader Frank Black has linked up with an on-line record company (www.GoodNoise.com) to sell a digital version of his forthcoming album. Also setting up a download business is the Gadfly label, whose catalog includes cult songwriters Tonio K and Graham Parker, and a pre-stardom James Taylor disc.
"Record stores aren't going to disappear, but as more households have PCs and people become more accustomed to spending time on line, it will become a significant part of music sales," says Gadfly owner Mitch Cantor.
Besides, he adds, a small label like Gadly has an easier time getting its music onto Web sites than into chain stores.
"The more opportunities people have to buy music, it can only be better for us."