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[Note for bibliographic reference: Melberg, Hans O. (1997), Non-utopian utopians? John Roemer's Coupon System, http://www.oocities.org/hmelberg/papers/970408.htm]

 

Non-utopian utopians?
John Roemer's Coupon System

by Hans O. Melberg


John Roemer, A Future for Socialism, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1994, ISBN: 0-674-33945-2, 178 pages


Introduction
The aim of John Roemer's book is to "sketch blueprints for a feasible socialism, to provide a basis, once again, for daring to believe in the dream" (p. 124). Socialism - the dream - is here defined in terms of equality of opportunities, not outcome. The question is then how he wants to do this.

Roemer has two proposals. First, to change the structure of ownership in firms. Second, to increase government control over the investment process. I shall discuss these in turn.

In Roemer's scheme large firms are first nationalized, and the ownership is then redistributed to the people. All citizens above 21 are supposed to receive coupons which they must invest in firms, but they are not free to sell or give the coupons to each other. They are, however, free to withdraw their coupons from one firm and invest in another whenever they want to (the price of a stock is given by the number of coupons you have to give. This price is allowed to fluctuate freely). The coupon-holders would then own the firm collectively and receive dividends from the coupons in the same way that owners of stocks receive dividends i.e. according to the profitability of the firm. When a person dies the coupons go back to the state for redistribution, for example to those who have just turned 21. In short, the coupons become a kind of money which can be used to buy stocks, the only difference being that you are not free to sell or give the coupons away.

The aim of this coupon-scheme is to increase equality of opportunities by making the income from ownership more equal. Today 10% of the people in a country often owns 70-80% of all corporate wealth. Under Roemer's scheme the distribution would be much more equal, and more people would have the opportunity to live good lives.

The second proposal put forth by Roemer, is to increase government control over the investment process. This is to be done, mainly, by creating a system of differentiated interest rates for different sectors. He gives three reasons why state intervention is desirable (p. 90-92). First, because of positive and negative externalities from investment. For example, investment in research and education is under-provided by the market, while investment in processes that pollute is over-provided. Second, to create public goods such as highways and communication systems. This may not be too controversial, but Roemer argues that the government should greatly increase this kind of spending since - he believes - it pays a very high return. Third, to compensate for incomplete markets. For example, there is no market for insurance against unlucky investment decisions. This means that firms do not make enough risky investments - investment which also have a very high potential return. In fact, there is something of a prisoners' dilemma situation: Individually it is not optimal to take a high risk, but socially it is optimal that some firms - more than now - make high-risk investments. These three arguments complete Roemer's case for larger government control over the investment process.

Combined Roemer believes that the two changes - the coupon system and increased government intervention in the investment process - would significantly improve total welfare in society. According to his estimates, based on US data for dividends from firms, he believes the income of the poor would increase by about 20%. Moreover, it would move the level and distribution of investment closer to its socially optimal level (reduce pollution, avoid missing markets). Is this really possible? And, is it possible to know whether it is possible?

Pros and Cons
First of all, Roemer's argument should not be dismissed as dogmatic socialist rambling. The tone of his book is cautious and the arguments are couched in a language familiar to most conservative economists. This, of course, does not mean that Roemer is always right. First, I shall argue that concentrated ownership may be better than Roemer's equal distribution of ownership in maintaining the efficiency of firms. Second, I believe the book would have profited from a closer discussion of whether freedom and democracy is reduced or increased in Roemer's socialist system. Third, I believe one might argue against Roemer even if we agree that his proposal might work since the risk of trying a new system may outweigh the potential benefits. Lastly, I shall comment on some interesting insights and minor flaws.

Efficiency
I have three arguments against Roemer on this account. First, I believe his system may increase rent-seeking i.e. that firms focus on changing the rules of the game to earn profit instead of engaging in productive activities. Second, I believe - more weakly - that concentration of ownership is important to maintain pressure on firms. In short, having a few owners tends to make it more difficult for the managers to do what they want than if the firm had a hundred thousand owners. Third, there is no guarantee that government intervention does not produce an even worse result than the inefficiency resulting from market failure.

In what way does Roemer's scheme increase the scope for rent-seeking? If the government is supposed to determine different interest rates for different sectors of the economy, firms will waste resources on activities to have their rates decreased. Roemer recognizes this but states that "it is beyond the scope of this essay to engage this challenge" (p. 106). This is unsatisfactory. The problem of rent-seeking is well-known, and deserves more attention than Roemer gives it.

On the other hand, one must also admit that rent-seeking is a problem under the current capitalist system. For example, in Norway the Association of Ship-Owners spends large sums of money in order to change the tax system in their favor. Also, even if there is an increase in rent seeking with Roemer's system, the benefits of planned investment may outweigh the costs of the increase in rent-seeking. For example, Roemer argues that the experience of planned investment in South Korea and Taiwan shows that there are great benefits from government intervention in the investment decisions. My overall point, however, is that Roemer does not engage in this discussion and he should do so in order to convince me that his scheme will be better than the existing economic system.

How do the concentration and nature of ownership affect the efficiency of firms? Roemer believes that it is competition that makes firm efficient, not private property and highly concentrated ownership. Furthermore, he believes that the two can be divorced - that it is possible to have competition without highly concentrated private ownership. The argument is simple. Firms are seldom run on a day to day basis by their owners. Instead, the owners hire managers who run their firms. The owners then make sure that the managers do what they want by monitoring the performance of managers. If they do so unsuccessfully there is always the threat of take-over so that the best owners will end up owning more firms. Roemer proposes to replace monitoring by a few big owners with monitoring by banks, pension funds and many small owners. The question is whether this system can achieve the same degree of efficiency as stock-market capitalism.

I place little faith in monitoring by many small owners. The gain for a very small owner - unlike the gain for a big owner - from monitoring his firm is too small compared to the costs. As for monitoring by banks, I believe it is possible, but I am unsure whether it would be as efficient as Roemer argues. His argument is that the history of Japan and Germany show that monitoring by banks is an efficient mechanism for maintaining the efficiency of firms. However, in Roemer's scheme banks are publicly owned unlike banks in Japan and Germany. Privately owned banks have an obvious incentive to monitor firms since they themselves are owned by a few large owners. Thus, under capitalism the problem of "who is going to monitor the monitors" is solved by private ownership while the socialist system has a problem both in terms of maintaining efficiency and avoiding state/bank abuse of power. Roemer admits that "we do not have a definite solution to this problem" (p. 76).

Although there is no definite solution, there are some possible mechanisms that could be used. Roemer's list include constitutional provisions prohibiting state interference with the banks, reliance on the importance (for a bank manager) of a reputation for independence from firms and the state, careful design of the salary structures of managers, international competition, well publicized precommitments and monitoring by pension funds. These mechanisms, he argues, reduce the problem of making sure that managers do what is economically efficient, that banks only give financially sound loans, and that the state does not interfere to distort the decision process by making it dependent on political and not economic criteria.

Some of these mechanisms may work - such as making the salary of managers dependent on the performance of the firm/the bank. However, I have greater doubts about constitutional provisions and the requirement to make highly publicized precommitments. I fear that the power structures implied in this system will serve to subvert these requirements in the same way that the constitution of the USSR was little more than a piece of paper. The state may manage to influence managers by promising the managers of banks and firms good positions in the state apparatus. Similarly, firms may influence managers in banks by making individually profitable, but socially unprofitable, deals with the bank managers. As long as your own wealth is not at risk you are more easily swayed by these promises. The threat of not being re-elected to the board of the bank is not very powerful counter-deterrent since they will have a good retirement position in a private firm. Moreover, laws against being influenced in this way is difficult to implement since - as with inside-trading - it is difficult for an outsider to distinguish between a honest, but bad, decision and a corrupt decision. Lastly, one might believe that even honest and diligent monitors make worse decisions when a large portion of their wealth is not at stake. Altogether, Roemer has not convinced me that the coupons system will be as efficient as current capitalism in monitoring firms.

The third factor creating inefficiency in Roemer's coupon system, can be labelled government failure. (Thanks to Steven Jay Blatt for pointing this out to me). For example, there is no law which makes sure that the government sets the most efficient rates of interest for the various sectors of the economy. Nor is it guaranteed that the government will invest in the most efficient infra-structure projects. In fact, there is reason to believe that the government will fail to do what is most efficient. In a democracy the voters have little incentive to gather information and to vote - the costs are high, the signals confused, and the individuals benefits are low. Now, when we cannot monitor our politicians in a good manner, we should not expect these politicians to behave in a manner which is perfectly correlated with the public interest. On the contrary, they might accept bribes for lowering interst-rates in one sector, and they might select pet project like building a large bridge in their own home-county. Thus, giving the state larger power in order to correct a market failure, may result in en aven worse situation as a result of government failure.

Liberty
Although the state is given a prominent role in Roemer's system, liberty is not a prime theme. This may be because Roemer believes it to be obvious that a society with more equality is one with more liberty. Clearly, if we define liberty as the ability to do what you want (and, more strongly, that what you want is not influenced by limited resources), then the poor are severely constrained in the USA today. However, if we use I. Berlin's famous distinction between positive and negative liberty the picture is more complicated. Consider the following example. In country A people are formally free to travel abroad, but very few have the financial resources to do so. In country B people are prohibited from traveling abroad, but many have the resource to do so. In otherwise equal circumstances, which of these countries have the highest level of freedom?

The issue is important because Roemer wants to prohibit certain acts in order to create what he believes result in more "real" freedom for a greater number of people. For example, the poor are prohibited from selling their coupons even if they want to. This restriction may be justified by the externality involved in the selling and buying of coupons. When one person sells a coupon this changes the distribution of power - making the one who buys a coupon more powerful. Thus, it affects all the other members of the community - not only the two who conduct the transfer. Moreover, the effect for the person selling the coupon is so small that he ignores it i.e. it becomes an external effect. In aggregate and over time, however, these effects are highly significant. For example, we may end up in a situation in which 10% of the population own 83% of the corporate wealth in a country, as is the case in the USA. This, in turn, means that they can use their wealth to influence the decision of politicians - for example by allowing more public bads (e.g. pollution) than the majority of the population wants. In this way one might try to justify the prohibition of capitalist actions between consenting adults.

Does not the argument above ignore the fact that the person selling his coupon (if it was allowed) would receive money for the coupon? Thus, the distribution of power is not really changed since my power is the same whether I own $100 in cash or a coupon worth $100. To defend himself against these claims, Roemer might say the poor are mypoic (have high discount values) which means that they would sell their coupons at a price below its "real value." Some might argue that there is no neutral way of finding the "correct" discount rate or the "real value" of a coupon and hence dismiss the above argument. However, an argument about justice cannot be dismissed simply because it is not neutral. In fact, we should welcome normative arguments as both valid and unavoidable in this field, as I shall argue below.

Political questions, such as the distribution of income, cannot be determined by neutral criteria. A price which comes about as the result of great inequalities of power can be considered wrong on normative grounds and this may justify regulation. Consider the following example from a book by Bo Giertz (Steingrunnen): A poor farmer does not have enough hay to feed his cow. He goes to his rich neighbour - the only one with spare hay in the village - and asks if he could buy some hay. The rich farmer says no, knowing that the poor farmer would then have to sell him the cow. Moreover, the poor farmer is forced to sell the cow cheaply since the alternative option - not selling the cow - gives him very little money (the price he can get from the butcher). Although there is no neutral criteria which says that the price the poor farmer recieves for his cow is too low in this situation, it is still possible to argue that the price is too low on normative grounds: It is simply not just. In the same way one might justify regulations against poor people selling their coupons - their cows. However, it is difficult to see why total prohibition is the only possible regulation. What if the price was simply raised? Would the selling of coupons then be acceptable?

For an argument against this option, I will refer the reader to an article by G. A. Cohen, in which he argues that free trade have external implications for the distribution of power between individuals (see Cohen's article in J. Arthur and G. Shaw's Justice and Economic Distribution). It is almost impossible to solve these problems because it requires different additions to the price depending on the existing wealth of the buyer. When I pay a famous basketballplayer $10 in order to see him play, I increase his wealth and power by a neglectible amount. Hence, I do not consider this change in power when I decide whether to buy a ticket to see his team or not. However, in aggregate his wealth, and hence power, is greatly increased when 10 000 people each pay him $10. Thus, we have that voluntary capitalist acts between consenting adults involve externalities: it changes the distribution of power and the agents who engage in this trade do not consider this effect. In the same way that all the existence of externalities may be used to justify intervention in other markets, this might be one way of justifying the prohibition of vuluntary trade: to avoid large concentration of power in the hands of a few people.

Against the above justification for intervention, one might argue that the very act of allowing the state to intervene in these areas leads to a slippery slope in which a more and more powerful state makes more and more decisions concerning over lives. This was a point made by Hayek a long time ago, as Roemer notes but does not discuss closely. Different systems have different potentials for turning into dictatorships. This means that we may design a system A which at one point in time has a higher level of freedom than system B, but that over time system A has a higher probability of turning unfree - a condition which has a tendency to be non-reversible. Now, arguing that this is a possibility does not prove that it is the case with Roemer's plan.

One factor which leads one to suspect that Roemer's system is more prone to dictatorship, is that Roemer gives the state the power to make a number of decisions, while at the same time he reduces the number of seriously wealthy agents outside the state. Some of the tasks of the state in Roemer's world include intervention in the investment process, Scandinavian welfare state activities, remedy market failures, greatly increase the resources dedicated to education, determine the maximum size of firms before they are nationalized, make sure that firms do not become cash-cows, and to avoid black-market trading in coupons. In addition, there are few individuals outside the state with enough wealth to resist the state - the coupon system implies that no single individual will own many firms. In this world I fear that a powerful clique might more easily take even more control over society than the case is with the existing system. I should add that my beliefs in these matters are not very strong as I believe it is difficult to speculate about these issues.

Risk
We know what we have, but we do not know what we'll get if we try another system. This simple truth implies that it is sometimes sensible to refuse to conduct an experiment even if the expected level of utility in the new system is higher than the existing system. I am partly convinced by many of Roemer's argument, although I have tried to make some critical remarks. Yet, I am not certain enough to endorse a wholesale experiment of the kind he envisages. The simple reason being that the doubts induced by the arguments above make me reluctant to experimenting with social systems. Even if there is a small probability of failure, the consequences may be so grave that I do not want to take the risk.

Maybe it is possible to implement Roemer's plan on a small scale to reduce the seriousness of its potential consequences. As far as I can see, it is possible to implement the plan stepwise i.e. the success of the various parts are not mutually dependent on each other. Moreover, it is possible to implement it locally i.e. its success is not dependent on being implemented at the same time all over the world. Lastly, unlike some other socialists utopias, his plan does not rest on changes in human nature i.e. he assumes rational and selfish individuals. Faced with these facts, I have two comments. First, Roemer's plan is less risky than many other plans, and in this sense I am more willing to try the experiment. Second, if it is so easy, good and safe why has it not been implemented in some country at some time?

There is always the possibility that a good idea has not been tried because of lack of knowledge. Those who are more paranoid might also argue that powerful forces conspire against the success and conduct of these experiments. Another reason might be that the system is impossible to implement (internally inconsistent) or that it is not stable (psychologically unstable or slippery slope argument). Certainly, some of the isolated elements are possible - such as more investment planning and monitoring by banks - since there are real life examples of this. But, as far as I know, there are no real-life examples of large-scale coupon ownership. Maybe this is because it is impossible, maybe it is because it has never been tried. In any case, there is a risk in being the first to try to find out which of the two is true.

Minor flaws
I am always surprised to find how some socialists still maintain a certain nostalgia for the former Soviet Union. Roemer is not a major example, but occasionally he makes some comments which makes my head spin a little. Consider, for example, his argument that "the world may be vastly better off for the fact that it [the socialist model in the Soviet Union] existed" (p. 130) since it served as an inspiration for the belief that capitalism and private property is not the only possible system and that equality is possible. More that "its demise also marks a setback for socialism" (p. 124) since the loss of a real alternative to capitalism weakens the beliefs that it is possible to find a feasible alternative.

In short, I do not feel the collapse of what Roemer also admits was a tyrannical regime, is a setback for socialism. Maybe it reinforced the belief in the feasibility of alternative systems, but the net effect of its existence for the cause of socialism was probably negative since it also made people believe that any alternative to capitalism was connected to a lack of political freedom and human rights - not to mention the deaths of millions of people in the experiment. It is my suspicion that we - both socialists and conservatives - are vastly better off without socialism in the Soviet Union, and we would be even better off if the experiment had not been conducted!

A related criticism of Roemer is his concern about whether his system really deserves to be called socialism or not. I do not care about these labels. Neither do I care whether a proposal is in agreement with what Marx wrote. Once again, Roemer is one of the few socialists who are least prone to dogmatic Marxism, but he still feels that he has to discuss whether his proposal constitutes what Marx meant with the phrase "public ownership of the means of production." I also jump a bit when I read that egalitarianism is "not simply a 'value judgement' ... rather ... a view that any rational honest person had to accept" (p. 27). I cannot help but think of the ugly history of "scientific socialism" and its believers who imposed sufferings on millions of people because they were certain that had discovered the objective laws of history. In contrast to this I believe the choice of how to organise society is more than a question of scientific and rational investigation since we cannot assume that rational people will converge on the same model for how society should be organized. If nothing else, we have different risk-attitudes.

Some insights
After trying to criticize Roemer's arguments, I should give credit to some of his insights. For example, the mentioned distinction between the effects of the market as opposed to the effects of private ownership seems both valid and valuable. I also found his discussion of the three principal-agent problems that must be solved both in capitalism and socialism very illuminating. First, managers must make sure that the workers do what the managers want. Second, some agency has to monitor the managers so they act in the interest of the owners. Third, there is the problem of making sure that the agency monitoring the managers do what the public wants. These principal-agent problems are reduced by various mechanisms under capitalism (democracy, private ownership, salary structure of managers). Roemer then suggests how socialists may use some of the same methods invented by capitalism to solve the principal-agent problems facing a socialist system, while at the same time avoiding the degree of inequality associated with capitalism.

Roemer's book also contains several interesting suggestions which are worth closer attention. One example is the concept of social-republican property which he borrows from William Simon (p. 22). This concept fits into a general frame in which Roemer makes the reader realize that there are more than two ways of organizing property rights. The traditional alternatives have been almost unlimited individually controlled private property vs. collectively owned and state controlled property. Social-republican property is a third category in which property is individually owned but it constrained by requiring active participation and the degree of inequality it creates.

Another example of an idea is what Roemer calls "psychologically stable" system. In order to be stable a system has to conform to the moral intuitions of the people. For example, people may believe that it is unfair to tax income too much. This would mean that a system which tried to do so could not be maintained - it is not psychologically stable. I have two further comments on this concept. First, our moral intuitions may be endogenously created or even engineered by the system. For example, Jon Elster has discussed the marginalist fallacy in which we are unconsciously fooled into believing that it is fair if we are paid as if we were the last worker to be hired (i.e. according to the marginal revenue). In a factory of ten workers they cannot all be the last person to be hired, though they may all get the wage as if they were (see Elster's Making Sense of Marx for more on this).

Second, one might wonder whether Roemer's own coupon system is psychologically stable. I am reminded of the classical question asked to utilitarians: Would they save an important bishop or their own grandmother if they could only save one of the two from a burning house. The question is interesting because socialists often argue that what they call morally irrelevant variables - such as place of birth and family name - should not be allowed to influence the distribution of wealth. Hence, they often support heavy taxation on inheritance or, in the case of Roemer - they want to abolish the right to transfer ownership rights between family members. (In Roemer's scheme your coupons go back to the state for redistribution to the new generation when the holder dies.) The question is then whether this system of little ownership transferal between generations conform to our moral intuitions. It may do so - remember that individuals are still allowed to transfer income and some privately held property - but I am not sure.

Conclusion
In conclusion, I give this book a conditional recommendation. It challenges some of our implicit beliefs, it is concise, well argued and the topic is important. However, Roemer should have engaged in a closer discussion of the weaker points of his proposal. True, given scarcity of time and space it is acceptable to simply present an idea, and to pospone the discussion of its problems. However, in this case the idea of equality is rather old and the weaknesses of state intervention are well known. Hence, I hope that Roemer can find the time to write a more sustained defence of his proposal dealing with Hayek's warning that this kind of state intervention leads to totalitarianism, the challenge that rent-seeking a serious problem for his plan, the problem of monitoring the monitors, and the issue of risk. One might also hope that this book becomes less a collection of articles than A Future for Socialism.



[Note for bibliographic reference: Melberg, Hans O. (1997), Non-utopian utopians? John Roemer's Coupon System, http://www.oocities.org/hmelberg/papers/970408.htm]