Let's find out how to do it wrong. I don't count early boots as often that has more to do with the player's social standing in the tribe than how strong a strategist they are. To make this list, players must survive at least four tribal councils and finish with a negative voting percentage. Voting percentage is their total vote points based upon this scale divided by votes cast. These are folks that had their kick at the can but messed it up. Here they come from "best" to worst.
As you scroll down this list there is something you may notice. Of he thirteen players here, only three are from the first four seasons. Personally, I think it is a sad statement on how this game has de-volved. In particular, it is a statement on how so many players have screwed over not only themselves but their entire tribes by failing to realize that you need to begin this game playing as a team, not an individual.| 13 | Jake Billingsly Season: Thailand, Position: 6th, Vote Points: -1, Vote Percentage: -13% Voting Line: Jed?, Stephanie?!, Robb?, Shii Ann, Erin, Ted?, Jan?!, Jan?! You're going to find all the members of the Fortress Four alliance on this list (the only alliance to pull off this dubious feat) so I'm going to have to spread out my comments on what this group did wrong. Thankfully, they've given me plenty to work with. The Fortress Four (Jake, Penny Ramsey, Ken Stafford and Erin Collins) formed very early out of the Sook Jai tribe. They received their name because they built a marvelous shelter that had one central distinguishing feature; there was only room for their alliance to sleep inside it. The Fortress Four is a classic example of what I like to call a "clique alliance". A clique alliance has a few distinguishing features: one, they form extremely quickly; two, once formed they are virtually impervious to outside influence or from internal breakdown; three, the presence of the alliance is very obvious and creates socially distinct "in" and "out" crowds. Clique alliances are very bad for tribe health as, once they get control of a tribe, everyone else in the tribe is basically out of the game and just sitting around waiting for their turn to go. Some people argue that this will motivate them to perform better in the challenges, but it doesn't work that way. Clique alliances destroy any sense of team and those that are part of the "out" crowd will inevitably suffer from moral loss and this will effect their performance in the challenges. There are not many people that can survive long in an organization if their contributions aren't appreciated and if there isn't the possibility for an eventual payoff (that is a possibility of doing well in the game). Despite Sook Jai physically being head and shoulders above their competition in Chuay Gahn, a predictably malaise crept into this tribe that can be attributed to isolating nature of the Fortress Four alliance. I'll talk later about how these guys screwed up their opening game. With Jake, I want to talk about his middle-game strategy. Take a look at his last three votes. They are on the two players that are furthest down Chuay Gahn's social ladder. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Even if the dominant pair - Brian and Clay in this game - decided to trim some deadwood from their tribe, like Tina and Colby did with Jerri in Australia, helping them do this doesn't help you out. The only thing that would help the weaker tribe is a coup, and the only people that would pull a coup are the lower members of any tribe, the very players Jake is voting against. Jake shouldn't be voting for players like Jan and Ted, he should be attempting to recruit them. It is very likely that it won't work (hence why playing a good opening game and winning challenges is so important, as it avoids this position in the first place) but it represents the weaker tribe's only real hope. To find out how the weaker tribe should play, read my entries under Rob Mariano (Marquesas), Sean Rector and Vecepia Towery that can be found in the best games section. |
| 12 | Frank Garrison Season: Africa, Position: 7th, Vote Points: -1, Vote Percentage: -14% Voting Line: Lindsey, Silas?!, Silas?, Clarence?!, Lex, Brandon??, Kim J?! I gotta say, I really enjoyed Frank in this season and I was rooting for him during the first half of this game, but it started to become increasingly clear to me that, as a player, he wasn't what I was hoping him to be. Frank was part of the Samburu tribe which broke into two clique alliances right off the bat. These things happen I suppose, and the tribe went into an inevitable tie vote in its first tribal council. Fair enough, but it was after his alliance ended up on the short end of the tie that things started to go badly. Frank came back the next time by putting pure spite votes onto Silas knowing this would spread those "previous votes against" around. Way to build tribe harmony! Next there was a swap where Frank, Teresa and Silas went over to Boran. Frank and Teresa handed Silas' head to them on a platter. A mistake no doubt, but before he went Silas found out that Clarence had more previous votes against than Silas did. Wouldn't it have been delicious if Silas and Frank could have healed their differences to get the better of Boran? They could have created a another tie and Clarence would have been the one to go, and this after Boran deliberately threw the challenge. Oh, what could have been! Once the merge hit, Frank's game got worse. He helped in voting out the Boran outsider in Clarence rather than to try and use Clarence to create some friction. He then seemed to be on the right track by putting together an all out attack on Lex - Boran's visible leader - which was "foiled" when Lex orchestrated the departure of tribe-mate Kelly Goldsmith bringing the tribes tied in numbers. This represents one of the biggest blunders of the game and Frank had the opportunity to take control, but he and tribe-mate Brandon still couldn't heal the rifts in Samburu and Frank ended up helping to vote him out. You don't get chances like that twice and Frank was out the next tribal council, putting his swan song vote on the ineffectual Kim Johnson. |
| 11 | Chad Crittenden Season: Vanuatu, Position: 8th, Vote Points: -1, Vote Percentage: -14% Voting Line: Brook?!, John P, Brady?, John K??, Ami, Julie?!, Eliza?! Chad is the only representative here from the Lopevi tribe, that group of all males who played in Vanuatu. This is perhaps not fair as he wasn't the one making the final decisions for his alliance and only made this list ahead of his alliance-mate because of a statistical fluke. In fact, in the alliance's biggest blunder, he was the one who was the voice of reason, but in the end the followers really are just as much to blame as the leaders. The "Fat-Five" alliance, of which Chad was part, has become all too typical in the modern game. They seem to feel tribal strength and unity in the early going just isn't all that important and that once you hit the merge you, teamed with your unbeatable ego, will be able to pull together whatever support you may need. I mean, who wouldn't want to ally with such brilliant men? Of course this means that any tribe that plays sensibly and sticks together, like the all female Yasur tribe across the island, would be able to walk all over these guys. Tribes need to remember that, in the opening stages of the game, the enemy is the other tribe, not each other. Problems began with the very first boot. The younger, more athletic players, wanted to vote out Chris who was the biggest liability in the first immunity challenge. Chris on the other hand was already forming his own alliance of which Chad was part. Their were two good things that Chad could have done. One, in the interest of tribal harmony and strength, Chad could have helped vote out Chris or two, the "Fat Five" alliance could take a run at the leader of the younger men in John P. As it was they did neither, leaving the leader in play while taking out the more innocuous of the younger men in Brady, thus insuring maximum tribal disharmony. Wrong way to go. The alliance did take out leader John next but then, after losing their second of three immunity challenges, voted out the athletic Brady when they could have trimmed out abrassive deadwood like Rory or Sarge which would have gone a long way to create some cohesion in this tribe to help them get on top of their opponents at Yasur. But the best was yet to come. A swap saw two of the women, Julie and Twila, come their way and the tribe had the chance of erasing their past mistakes by taking the ladies out (I would have been throwing the next two challenges myself) to give them a better position come the merge. Instead, they attempted to draw them into their alliance and continued to remove their own tribe-mates, thus ensuring the women the majority come the merge. In a move that shocked no one besides the Lopevi men, Julie and Twila ran back to their respective alliances at the first opportunity. Once in the minority, Chad and his tribe-mates fell into the predictably scattered play we've seen in the past from the minority tribe which mostly involved putting votes towards the more isolated players in Yasur rather than trying to stir up a coup against those on top. |
| 10 | Shii Ann Huang Season: All-Star, Position: 6th, Vote Points: -2, Vote Percentage: -25% Voting Line: Richard?, Colby??, Ethan, Jerri??, Lex?!, Amber, Alicia?!, Amber You know, I used to feel sorry for Shii Ann and felt she had the potential to be a strong player. Boy, was I wrong. Her first kick at the can was as a member of Sook Jai which was ruled by the notorious Fortress Four alliance (and alliance you'll get to read plenty about on this page). It looked like Shii Ann was going to make the merge that season - where she was very up front that she was going to switch sides and create havoc - but when the merge was delayed, and Sook Jai lost yet another challenge, it was obvious that no matter what she did she was going to be the next one gone. In All-star she was at the heart of the dominant alliance of the Mogo-Mogo tribe and, although I didn't think this was possible, Mogo-Mogo showed that they could play worse than Sook Jai. I'm going to have to save the discussion of Mogo-Mogo's strategies when I get to Lex's entry (this list wouldn't be complete without Lex's All-Star game), so I don't have much to say here besides that Shii-Ann showed herself to be typical of this new wave of losing player. They lose, but they lose spectacularly, often bringing their whole tribe with them and without a clue as to what they did wrong. |
| 9 | Ryan Opray Season: Pearl Islands, Position: 9th, Vote Points: -1, Vote Percentage: -20% Voting Line: Nicole, Ryan S?, Lillian?, Jon?, Christa A member of yet another clique alliance in a losing tribe. - This is turning into a theme of this page. - This time the clique was Ryan, Andrew Savage, Tijuana Bradley and Osten Taylor of the Morgan tribe. This was a wacky alliance but in truth, "Ryano" was really just one of the followers and was not calling the shots, so I think I'll save my discussion on how this group played when I get to Andrew Savage a little further down. Personally, I don't think Ryan really ever had his head around this game and even if his tribe were to end up on top, I don't think he had much of a hope of finishing ahead of his tribe-mates. |
| 8 | Penny Ramsey Season: Thailand, Position: 7th, Vote Points: -2, Vote Percentage: -29% Voting Line: Jed?, Stephanie?, Robb?, Shii Ann, Erin, Ted?, Jake?! Our second member of the Fortress Four alliance. Actually, I've always seen Penny as the dominant personality of this group. Support from the other three all drifted towards her, and it was she that set the tone for how this tribe operated. Let's start with the Jed boot. The first thing to realize is that they threw the challenge in order to remove Jed, and this was only the third immunity challenge of the game. Wow, that's confidence! Imagine watching the World Series and after your favourite team winning the first two games they decide they can spot their opponent one. Wouldn't you be impressed? Well, I guess Jed must have been a real thorn in the tribe's side; dogging it around camp, arguing with people, being a liability in the challenges? No, not really. Jed was an athletic young man and, in reality, rather innocuous around camp. For the life of me, I really can't figure out why they were so eager to get rid of him unless they were hell bent on showing their dominance to the rest of the group and making them feel like crap. Actually, I do know where they were coming from. It's the new wave of losing tribe strategy; vote out the athletic young guys because they are threats. I'll expand on this later, but the very fact that these guys are so readily perceived as threats, means that they are not threats at all. I'll leave that one with you for a while. Anyway, back to Jed. They had a better boot than him (or Stephanie or Robb) and that was Shii Ann. What exactly was Shii Ann offering this group? Athletically, she was definitely the weakest but, far more significantly, she comes across as a rather intelligent (read dangerous) player. It's players like Shii Ann that are threats, not Jed. She was riding the fifth spot in this alliance, a spot that could have been filled with greater potential for loyalty from any other member of the tribe. Instead they kept this player in favour of booting players in order of how athletic they were. Not surprisingly, they lost challenge after challenge. Before letting Penny go, we've got to take a look at her last vote: Jake?! Wow, how Brian, Clay and the rest of Chuay Gahn wasn't blown over by this sincere conversion to their cause is beyond me. What exactly is this vote meant to accomplish anyway? |
| 7 | Gervase Peterson Season: Borneo, Position: 7th, Vote Points: -2, Vote Percentage: -29% Voting Line: B.B., Colleen?, Jenna?!, Sue?, Jenna??, Richard, Sean?! From clique alliances to no alliance at all, I'm not really sure what Gervase's plan was to try and win this game. I suppose that can be understood as Borneo was the first season and strategy had not really entered into it yet. Gervase was isolated from the group early on and his votes on Colleen and Jenna were solo ones as the boots went elsewhere. When the merge hit, Pagong didn't realize that the other tribe was going to vote together, a mistake that surely will never be repeated, and Gervase threw an isolated vote on Susan. What was harder to understand was how, even after their tribe-mate Gretchen was voted out by the Tagi alliance, Gervase thought the best move was voting for another tribe-mate Jenna on the next go around. Finally as his tribe, Pagong, realized what was going on they did their only sensible bit of voting and went after Richard, but by then it was too late. Gervase's final vote was wasted on the innocuous Sean. Gervase really was typical of how the Pagong tribe played before Richard Hatch showed everyone that alliances were the best way to stack the odds of winning in your favour. It seems unlikely we'll ever see another Pagong again. |
| 6 | Dave Johnson Season: Amazon, Position: 9th, Vote Points: -1, Vote Percentage: -20% Voting Line: Daniel?, Daniel, Jeanne?, Christy?!, Matt?! Ah yes, our rocket scientist. One of the most entertaining moments of Survivor that I've experienced was watching Dave's puzzled look at tribal council, while he counted on his fingers when Roger went - Dave voted Christy that night. Dave started this game not doing the whole alliance thing by putting a solo vote on Daniel, but about two weeks in he was handed a gift in the form of a swap. He, along with Jenna from Jabaru, got to choose the new tribes and Dave immediately began by keeping his closest buds in Roger and Butch near him and bringing over Jenna's closest ally in Heidi as well as isolated players Christy and Jeanne. He had it set up pretty good, but didn't understand how to play his hand as he immediately tried to make an alliance with Heidi. Now Jenna, in one of her more foolish moments, had told Dave everything he needed to know about her tribe so he knew exactly where Heidi stood in the Jabaru power chain. How could he think Heidi would stay loyal to him come a merge? The person he helped vote out in Jeanne should have been the one he allied with and it was Heidi that should have gone. This would have been a major blow to the dominant players at Jabaru and would have thrown that tribe into flux. Exactly what he should have wanted to accomplish. Once the merge hit, Dave continued to show that he was out to lunch with what was going on and didn't shoot for the head at Jabaru (Heidi or Jenna) or, even better, to try and remove one of the more free swinging males (Tambaqui was up 6 to 4 at the merge and Rob Cesternino would definitely be that free swinging male - Alex would have been a good pick to). Instead he voted for the innocuous Christy. He also completely discounted the possibility that Alex and Rob were no longer playing for him and Roger - imagine that. Even once Roger was gone he kept voting for lame targets like Matt rather than shooting for the power players. |
| 5 | Andrew Savage Season: Pearl Islands, Position: 10th, Vote Points: -2, Vote Percentage: -50% Voting Line: Nicole, Ryan S?, Lillian?, Jon? Andrew was the leader of the clique alliance that came out of the Morgan tribe that consisted of himself, Ryan Opray, Osten and Tijuana. Like all clique alliances, they marginalized the other members of their tribe. This was never more apparent than the way they protected Osten. A player that could be more of a liability to the tribe could not be imagined. He began talking about quitting almost from the beginning, was no use around the camp or even in the challenges (they lost a couple of immunity challenges directly because him). Their alliance didn't even need him for support as Darah was also firmly in their camp, but instead of sending him packing - which would not only strengthen the tribe in the challenges, but bring up the moral of the "out" crowd - they voted out contributors like Ryan Shoulders and Lillian. Lillian was the one that really hurt. She was a complete team player, did most of the work around the camp and not only was Osten more of a liability than her, so was Darah who contributed virtually nothing as well. The funny thing was, this tribe almost got themselves back into this game because of the shenanigans going on at Drake, and it was beginning to look like the tribes were going to merge tied, but then a game twist saw Lillian return and she understandably wasted no time going over to the other camp. Even without that, I strongly suspect Andrew didn't have the game where-for-all to get the better over Drake anyway, as his final vote showed: Jon?! If anyone was going to screw over his tribe-mates, it was obviously Jon. You need to use these kind of wild cards, not try to get rid of them. |
| 4 | Ken Stafford Season: Thailand, Position: 8th, Vote Points: -3, Vote Percentage: 50% Voting Line: Jed?, Stephanie?!, Robb?, Shii Ann, Erin?, Ted? Member number three of the Fortress Four out of the Sook Jai tribe. He wasn't near the top of this alliance (that would have been Penny and Jake) so his strategy seemed to be flying under the radar until the endgame at which point he likely hoped to win the final two immunity challenges. This may have gotten him into the final two (as long as his tribe made the merge in the lead, which was unlikely considering their method of play) but even when there, he was unlikely to win as juries have been almost perfectly consistent in voting against floaters. The thing with Ken is, he had other options. He was the player reaching out to the isolated members of his tribe, trying to create a feeling of team but when push came to shove, he always voted with Penny and Jake. Ken would have been better off abandoning these two all together, forming a new alliance from the isolated members and take control of the game. His tribe would have been better off, and so would he. When Sook Jai was down to four, the tribes had yet to merge so when they lost that final tribal challenge, we got a look at how these guys would have played had they reached the final four. This gives us an opportunity to talk endgame strategy, which otherwise couldn't be talked about on this list because, with good reason, none of these players every got close to making the final four. I'm going to save that conversation for the last of the Fortress Four, Erin Collins. |
| 3 | Lex van den Burghe Season: All-Star, Position: 9th, Vote Points: -3, Vote Percentage: -60% Voting Line: Richard?, Colby??, Ethan, Jerri??, Amber I have to say, I've never been a Lex fan. I didn't like the game he played in Africa and always felt that Ethan had strong input into how Boran operated. This belief has only been reinforced by Lex's crumby play in All-Star. Here he had no one to keep him in check because his support group consisted of yes-men (well yes-women really) Kathy and Shii Ann. I find it hard to over state how badly Lex ran the Mogo Mogo tribe. To put some numbers to it, the Mogo Mogo's voting percentage (total vote points divided by votes cast) during the opening phase of the game (for All-Star that was the first nine episodes) was -73%. The next worse was the Morgan tribe from Thailand at +7%. They really blew the bottom out of the scale. Almost every vote Lex and his cronies cast was wrong. They voted out contributor Richard Hatch over removing one of the Sabogas that came their way when that tribe was dissolved - Jerri would have been the best pick at that time. They then turned on their greatest contributor Colby, completely ignoring the fact that this brought the original Mogo Mogos down to three, compared to four each from the original Chapera and Saboga - making this the third consecutive episode without a Saboga going despite the fact their tribe was dissolved during that time. To me this is just staggering. I mean, why bother winning immunity challenges at all if it is such a brilliant strategy seeing your own people not make the merge? The amazing thing is, the best is yet to come. When Amber (the second in command over at Chapera) came their way in a player swap, do they take the gift in an effort to throw chaos into the dominant tribe? No! They boot Jerri instead in a vain attempt to buy Rob's (Amber's partner) loyalty. Guess what guys, Rob doesn't need your help which they found out the next tribal council after the tribes merged and Lex deservedly took the "walk of shame". Lex couldn't have done a better job bringing down this tribe if he were there to intentionally sabotage it in the first place. |
| 2 | Erin Collins Season: Thailand, Position: 9th, Vote Points: -3, Vote Percentage: -60% Voting Line: Jed?, Stephanie?, Robb?, Shii Ann, Ken? We have finally reached the end of our Fortress Four discussion with Erin, and here I want to concentrate on her last vote because it really has to do with endgame strategy despite it occurring before the merge. The merge was delayed this season and when Sook Jai went to the final tribal council, the only players left was the Fortress Four themselves. Penny and Jake were a pair and weren't going anywhere. They had to make a decision as to who was to go and it was clear that the original plan was to vote out Ken at this stage. The thing was, this delayed merge had spooked them and they were worried of still having to compete as a tribe, so they decided to keep Ken and vote Erin completely based on physical strength. They told Ken they were voting Erin and Erin they were voting Ken. Okay, so how should Ken and Erin have played? Playing along basically means you had a fifty-fifty shot of moving on - that is that Penny and Jake had chosen you to go. What Erin and Ken should have done was force a tie and held on. One possibility would be that Jake or Penny would change their vote (my bet would be on Penny) but even if they didn't it would go to purple stones and you would have a 1 in 4 or 25% chance of taking the walk. Hmmm, 50% of going versus 25%. Obviously the tie represents your better odds. More over, if it was Jake or Penny gone you would now be the one controlling the tribe and, if this were the final four, that would mean controlling the game. So not only have you reduced your chances of going from 50% to 25% by forcing the tie, you've created a 50% chance of becoming the player in the cat-bird seat. If this were the final four - a true endgame - one player would have immunity. If this player were either the third or the fourth in the alliance, the odds are even better for them (they are guaranteed to move on and they have a 67% chance of taking control of the game). Even if it is one of the dominant players that hold immunity, the third and fourth should force the tie where each would have a 67% chance of moving on and a 33% chance of taking control of the game compared to 50% chance of moving on and 0% chance of controlling the game if you trust the dominant duo. The amazing thing is that in the eight final fours we've had so far, there has been only one tie that held. Not so surprisingly, this tie was forced by a strong player, Vecepia, who not only took control of the game but went on to win. See best games for a detailed talk on this player. Also not surprisingly, the thought of forcing a tie did not occur to either Erin or Ken. Just another ingredient as to why they are on this list. |
| 1 | Greg Buis Season: Borneo, Position: 9th, Vote Points: -5, Vote Percentage: -100% Voting Line: Ramona?, Jenna?, Joel!?, Jenna??, Jenna?? Oh man, where do I start with this guy. I think I could have voted better picking names out of a hat and for all I know, that's exactly what Greg did. I think Greg's strategy was to be all over the place and hopefully escape notice because everyone would think you were a harmless nut. In Survivor, there is no such thing as a harmless nut. How each player votes has ramifications on the others and one of the quickest ways to find your way out of the game is to be unpredictable. I did love the coconut phone though. |