METEOROLOGY
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Meteorology is the science that studies the atmosphere and the ionosphere. Although
in practice it is centered in the study and the forecasting of the atmospheric
weather. * The atmospheric weather corresponds to the weather conditions of the moment and considers the hours of sun, rain, snow, wind, humidity, temperature and atmospheric pressure. The clouds help to the weather forecast due to the fact that they have got a strong relationship with the atmospheric changes. Nowadays the meteorologists can forecast the weather with a 85% reliability when the anticipation is 10 hours (while greater anticipation lesser the realibility) * The experimental data show that the Earth atmosphere is unsteady and no linear, so it is well characterized with the Chaos Theory. As the evolution of a chaotic system is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, as a summary that thereis a limit to the duet realibility - anticipation independant to the presiciion of the data processed and the complexity of the model used. On one hand it is impossible to make a forecast with 100% of realibility for particular systems. However the Theory of Chaos allows to predict with great accuracy the global climatic changes, because in this case it is no sought to extrapolate a specific trajectory in the phases space, but it is sought the form and position of the ATTRACTOR of the system. More... | |
| Predicting Solar Cycle
24 and beyond (Oct 06) Mark A. Clilverd, Ellen Clarke et al We use a model for sunspot number using low-frequency solar oscillations, with periods 22, 53, 88, 106, 213, and 420 years modulating the 11-year Schwabe cycle, to predict the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 and for future cycles, including the period around 2100 A.D. We extend the earlier work of Damon and Jirikowic (1992) by adding a further long-period component of 420 years. Typically, the standard deviation between the model and the peak sunspot number in each solar cycle from 1750 to 1970 is ±34. The peak sunspot prediction for cycles 21, 22, and 23 agree with the observed sunspot activity levels within the error estimate. Our peak sunspot prediction for cycle 24 is significantly smaller than cycle 23, with peak sunspot numbers predicted to be 42 ± 34. These predictions suggest that a period of quiet solar activity is expected, lasting until ~2030, with less disruption to satellite orbits, satellite lifetimes, and power distribution grids and lower risk of spacecraft failures and radiation dose to astronauts. Our model also predicts a recovery during the middle of the century to more typical solar activity cycles with peak sunspot numbers around 120. Eventually, the superposition of the minimum phase of the 105- and 420-year cycles just after 2100 leads to another period of significantly quieter solar conditions. This lends some support to the prediction of low solar activity in 2100 made by Clilverd et al. (2003) | More | Evidence
in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis (Oct 06) |
James B. Elsner The power of Atlantic tropical cyclones is rising rather dramatically and the increase is correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic. A debate concerns the nature of these increases with some studies attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and others suggesting climate change related to anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing from greenhouse-gases. Here tests for causality using the global mean near-surface air temperature (GT) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) records during the Atlantic hurricane season are applied. Results show that GT is useful in predicting Atlantic SST, but not the other way around. Thus GT "causes" SST providing additional evidence in support of the climate change hypothesis. Results have serious implications for life and property throughout the Caribbean, Mexico, and portions of the United States. | More |
Now: The World
(Source: www.accuweather.com)
