Hurricane Predictions for 2003
2003 Hurricane Forecast's 12 named storms
!!FORT COLLINS, Colo. — It's a weather double-whammy: Snow and ice now, and more Atlantic hurricanes than usual next year. As the East and Southeast recover from Thursday's(Dec.5th, 2002) first notable blast of winter, the nation's leading tropical storm researchers issue their first forecast for 2003. Scientists with Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project predict twice as many hurricanes as last year will develop from June 1 to Nov. 30, the traditional season in the Atlantic. The forecast is for a dozen tropical storms — those with winds of 39 mph to 73 mph. From those, eight are expected to become hurricanes, three of them major. They also forecast a 30% greater chance that at least one major or "intense" hurricane — a storm with winds of at least 111 mph — will strike land somewhere along the Eastern seaboard, Florida or the Gulf Coast. After a quiet 2002 and several years of mostly close calls, the USA's coastline is overdue for a major and costly hit, says tropical storm expert William Gray, the project's founder. Only one of four hurricanes reached U.S. shores this year. Hurricane Lili caused an estimated $335 million in damage along the Gulf Coast in October. Over the past eight years, just four of 62 Atlantic hurricanes hit the USA. "The United States has been extremely lucky," says Gray, in his 20th year of forecasting tropical storms at Colorado State. "With such large coastal population growth in recent decades, it is inevitable that we will see hurricane-spawned destruction in coming years on a scale many times greater than what we have seen in the past." If so, blame it in part on the predicted demise of El Nino the warming of Pacific Ocean waters along the equator. The phenomenon, which can trigger abnormal weather across the continent, also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes. Blowing east from the Pacific, El Nino's winds can disrupt hurricanes as they churn toward the USA. Hurricanes form in the Atlantic when midyear storms over Africa drift west and build intensity and moisture when they reach warm ocean waters. They begin as tropical storms blowing at 39 mph or more. With winds from 74 mph to more than 180 mph, hurricanes inflict the most damage when they come ashore.Although it's still nearly seven months until hurricane season, today's forecast is a first look for insurers and state, local and federal emergency managers as they prepare for potential hits. The Colorado State researchers will update and refine their predictions several times next year. And the National Weather service will make its hurricane predictions in the coming year. Gray's team makes its predictions using data from more than half a century of hurricane observation and measurement. Long term, the Atlantic averages about 91/2 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 21/3 major hurricanes a year.