ANALYZE.htm

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Analysis of Earl of Donegal lists

Scroll to the bottom of this web page to read an example of an analysis based on the facts below.

How ACCURATELY were the ages reported?

Were 28% (instead of 10%) of the passengers reported to be either ten, twenty, thirty, fourty, fifty, sixty or seventy years old because the ages of many adult passengers were rounded off (see the violet colored cell in the bottom line of column #10 in the table below)?

Why were twelve times more passengers reported to be 30 years old than were reported to be 29 or 31 years old? Were there ten times as many 20 year olds as nineteen or twenty one year olds on board? Were sixteen passengers reported to be forty years old, but only one as being from fourty one to fourty three years old because round figures are easier to remember? Were there actually ten times as many fifty year olds as passengers between 51 and 59 years old (was fifty old enough)?


Are only ROUND NUMBER AGES suspect?

Each "head of a household" was officially granted 100 acres, plus 50 acres per dependent. Mothers and small children were considered dependants of the heads of their households. From the combined passenger and land grantee records at LIST.htm , it appears that even unmarried family members who were over fifteen years old were eligible for a 100 acre royal land grant. Not all passengers (line 107) over 15 years old were granted 100 or more acres. Was David Usher the only fifteen year old (see the yellow cell in the Age 11-20 row of column #5 in the table below) reported because hundreds of acres of land were at stake, and questions might be asked (children often say they are fifteen before their fifteenth birthday) if the age of a child were said to be less than 16?

Table of Passenger AGES
Age Groups   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10      

Column numbers are in the row above

Age 1-10   1 6 7 9 10 11 6 12 4 10   76 28%
Age 11-20   5 5 11 6 1 8 10 8 2 21   77 29%
Age 21-30   2 7 4 5 5 3 2 4 1 12   45 17%
Age 31-40   0 1 2 2 0 4 3 2 2 16   32 12%
Age 41-50   1 0 0 3 4 3 2 2 5 10   30 11%
Age 51-60   1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5   8 3%
Age 61-70                     1   1 .03%

Totals in each column above are in the row below

    10 20 24 26 20 29 23 28 14 75   269 Total
Bottom Line   4% 7% 9% 10% 7% 11% 9% 10% 5% 28%   Total 100%

YOUTH aboard the Earl of Donegal

According to the ages of the 269 passengers reported,

  1. 28% (76) were ten or less years old (see the green cell of the right column of the Age 1-10 row in the table above).
  2. 57% were less than twenty one years old
  3. 97% were less that fifty one years old (some died over ninety years old).

Were children less than two years old considered less likely to survive a long sea voyage (only one was listed)?

Of the 121 land grantees

  1. 66 grantees received 100 acres (no dependants)
  2. 13 grantees received 150 acres (one dependant)
  3. 37 grantees received over 150 acres (several dependants)

Frequency of some first names of passengers

About 27 women were named Jane or Jannet, 26 Mary, 22 Margaret, 19 Elizabeth, 5 Martha, 6 Ann, 6 Agnes, 4 Sarah, 2 Eleanor, 2 Susan or Susannah, 2 Isabell, 1 Rebecca, 1 Rachel, 1 Rose.

About 33 men were named John, 28 William, and 25 James, 17 Robert, 12 Samuel, 8 David, 6 Thomas, 5 Adam, 4 George, 3 Alexander, 3 Hugh, 3 Daniel, 2 Joseph, 2 Charles, 2 Patrick, 2 Peter, 2 Henry, 2 Francis, 1 Michael, 1 Andrew, 1 Benjamin, 1 Christian.


Were the names of all passengers reported?

Clerks make mistakes. Were there "stow aways"?

Was Arthur Cunningham (line 218 at LIST.htm) granted 300 acres even though he had only 3 dependants; Robert Man (line 214) 350 acres even though he had only 3 dependants, and David Spence (line 134) 400 acres even though he had less than six dependants? Four more passengers who were named Spence and listed with the same Spence family were granted 100 acres each, and Arthur Spence (line 159) was granted 100 acres according to the land grant list, but is not on the passenger list. Why were some named on the list of Earl of Donegal land grantees, but not on the list of Earl of Donegal passengers?

Read about a confirmed Earl of Donegal passenger, Elizabeth WHITE Wilkins, who was not named on the list of passengers, under WHITE letters at MAIL.htm .


How were names of passengers grouped?

Each passenger's name seems to have been grouped with the name(s) of other members of her/his family or household, not alphabetically. For example, various Spence households, possibly kin, are listed on lines 19, 37, 144, 153, and 161 of the list of passengers.


An analysis based on the above information

On the list of passengers aboard the Earl of Donegal, the names of Ann Garner (about 1727 - January 25, 1818) and John White (1720 - ?) preceed those of their six children. One was named Eleanor Helen White (1758 - October 10, 1839). Rose (1745 - May 31, 1832) and James Stewart (1741 - October 2, 1829) are listed between John White's children (line 71 at LIST.htm) and Eleanor White (born about 1717) on line 74. A descendant of James Stewart told me these Whites and Stewarts were friends and neighbors in Ireland.

How likely is it that two unrelated Eleanor Whites are listed so close together (Eleanor Spence was the only other passenger named Eleanor)? Eleanor is not a vry common name.

If Eleanor White and John White were related by marriage or birth, why would Rose and James Stewart be listed between them if they were not considered part of the same household?

Why was nothing remembered or written about Eleanor White (born about 1717) in the book about this White family? Was Eleanor White (born about 1717) related to John White only by marriage?

Might John White's daughter Eleanor Helen WHITE (Walker) have been named after Eleanor White because Eleanor White (born about 1717) lived with Ann and John White after her husband (a brother of John White?) died? Did Eleanor White leave older children in Ireland? Did Eleanor emigrate to America to remain with her only child Rose, the wife of James Stewart?

Only 6% of the passengers were fifty or more years old. All but Eleanor White and Mary McKinney (was Mary McKinney the mother of Elizabeth Ballentine?) were listed next to passengers with the same last name. Were people that old likely to travel to America alone?

"The White Family" book stated that Ann Garner and John White were the parents of Elizabeth WHITE (Wilkins), who was born about a year before their son William. Did its authors assume Elizabeth was born in America because Elizabeth was not listed with her parents on the passenger list (who knows when John White was killed by Cherokees)?

First names of family members have been passed down for many generations because of more or less strictly observed traditional Scots Irish naming patterns. Was it by coincidence that both John White and James Stewart had grandchildren named Hugh (Hugh White and Samuel Hugh Stewart)?

Hugh (not a very common name) was listed as the name of only 3 out of 269 Earl of Donegal passengers. Were Hugh BONAR (born about 1749 and the only passenger named Bonar) and approximately 50 year old Eleanor White listed next to each other on the passenger list because they were friends or kin? Might Eleanor have been a BONAR before she married a WHITE?

Was Eleanor's White husband killed at Culloden in 1747, when Eleanor was 30 years old and Rose (White?) Stewart was only two years old? Might the widowed mother of Rose (White?) and parent(s) of James Stewart (born about 1741) have escaped together to Ireland in 1747, after the battle of Culloden?

Are worthless guesses based on flimsy evidence and brilliant imaginings less likely to expose genealogical truth than any other?


Please write me about your interpretations of this passenger list, about any of my figures that are inaccurate, or if you know anything about others who may have been aboard the Earl of Donegal, but were not named on lists of her passengers.