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It is our intent to create a respectful environment for understanding and healing, a Discussion-Safety-Zone for Related Topics, while maintaining our Visitors' Zones-of-Privacy, and to interact on a non-judgmental basis. Today far too many communities fail to create these safety-zones!

3-4-04 Commentary: Legislative use of old, outdated, and questionable statistics to support proposed legislation!

An alert reader noticed the following: citing from Congressional Record, U.S. Senate 4-7-2003!

» 3-3 U.S. Senate (April 7, 2003): Senator Hatch introduces the `Lifetime Consequences for Sex Offenders Act of 2003'! Senator Hatch said the following in support of that act:

"Studies show that sexual offenders are prone toward recidivism throughout their lives. A 1988 study of sexual recidivism factors (Barbaree & Marshall 1988) on child molesters showed that 43 percent of offenders sexually reoffended within a 4-year followup period--43 percent, almost half of them who were caught. Within a 4-year period, maybe others reoffended and were not caught. So one way to help curb that recidivism is to place the defendant on supervised release for a period of years after he or she is released from prison."

"Currently, under 18 U.S.C. Section 3543, a Federal judge is allowed to impose a term of 1 to 5 years supervised release on a convicted sex offender. In a review of 42 studies regarding sexual-offender recidivism (Furby, Weinrott, Blackshaw 1989) in which researchers followed up on the offenders, the researchers have found that the longer the followup period is, the greater is the percentage of those who will commit another crime. So it means they tend to reoffend way out into extended periods of time." ... more ...(US Senate Congressional Record 4-7-2003)(Italics Inserted)

The facts provided above were sufficient to locate which studies Senator Hatch was referencing:
Paragraph-1:
"Barbaree, H.E., & Marshall, W.L. (1988). Deviant sexual arousal, demographic and offense history variables as predictors of reoffense among child molesters and incest offenders. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 6, 267-280. and
Paragraph-2:
Furby, Lita, Weinrott, Mark R., & Blackshaw, Lyn. "Sex Offender Recidivism: A Review." Psychological Bulletin 105 (1989): 3-30. Examined 55 studies, totalling 15,361 sexual offenders.

What Senator Hatch is proposing would only affect sex offenders who were convicted under federal law (Title 18), and would not apply to any state convictions, unless states enacted a similar law.
THE PROBLEMS:

The Barbaree study used a base group of 35 untreated child molesters, of which 15 (43%) reoffended within 4 years. Child molesters are but One Sub Group of sex offenders, rapists and pedophiles and other sub groups were not included in the study. Secondly, by using ONLY 'untreated offenders,' in the study, rather than a cross section of all sub groups of sex offenders, the study is biased and skewed.

Therefore, the proposed law is based upon the actions of only 15 child molesters! The resolve, "Lifetime Supervision" of ALL sex offenders? Recognizing the existence of 'sub-groups of sex offenders,' and then, applying the facts of -one-sub-group- to all sex offenders, is blatantly wrong. This analogy is not representative of the whole class of sex offenders.

In addition, in Furby (1989) meta-analysis, those researchers believed that, most of the -then existing recidivism studies- were flawed. However, they found 42 studies comparing recidivism for treated sex offenders and untreated controls that passed their stringent criteria for inclusion. In general they were critical that treatment was in most incidences not effective in reducing recidivism rates.

HERE IS WHAT WE LEARNED:

How Much do Sex Offenders Reoffend?
"Contrary to popular belief, convicted sex offenders have relatively low rates of recidivism compared to other offenders. On average, untreated sex offenders sentenced to prison have a recidivism rate of 18.5%. In comparison, recidivism rates range around 25% for drug offenses and 30% for violent offenses. 6 Thus, people convicted of sex crimes tend to reoffend less than people convicted of many other types of crime."

"The public trial, shame and humiliation of getting caught appears to deter most sex offenders from further misconduct. Sex offenders who have been identified, convicted and punished probably present less of a threat to society than do most other offenders."

Does Treatment Reduce Recidivism?
"A popular misconception is that nothing can cure a sex offender. This myth can be traced largely to a paper published by Lita Furby in 1989. Furby's paper, however, focused on the lack of sophisticated, reliable data with which to evaluate treatment regimes. It concluded only that evidence of the effectiveness of psychological treatment was inconclusive. Politicians and the mass media picked up this judgment, often converting it to the claim: "Nothing Works!"

"That conclusion, however, is against the general weight of the evidence. Most research shows that sex offenders do indeed respond positively to treatment. A comprehensive analysis by Margaret Alexander of the Oshkosh Correctional Institution found far more studies reporting positive results than otherwise 8 (see Figure 1)." See:_Sex Offenders: Does Treatment Work? by Eric Lotke, The National Center on Institutions and Alternatives (NCIA), a 501(c)(3) public benefit corporation, founded in 1977 by Dr. Jerome G. Miller and Herbert J. Hoelter.

What Are The Most Recent Recidivism Statistics Showing?
In November of 2003, the U.S. government released a new study of sex offender recidivism (9,691 offenders released in 15 states). That study shows, 3.5% of ALL previously convicted sex offenders, commit another sex offense. See:_Recidivism of sex offenders released in 1994. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report, Langan, P. A., & Levin, D. J. (November 2003).

Why current research is not used is unknown! Must be something to do with politics, which I do not understand?

eAdvocate.




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