MALAYSIA Malaysian Politics Hits a Turning Point John R. Malott [Ed. Note: The author was the U.S. ambassador to Malaysia from 1995 to 1998. Although originally written in December 1999-about a month after Malaysia's parliamentary elections this article is published here as an analysis of the current political forces in Malaysia that will shape the promotion or hindrance of human rights, democratic development and judicial independence in the country in the years ahead. The source is www.freeanwar.com.] Key Points While Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's 14-party coalition achieved an impressive victory in Malaysia's November 29 elections in 1999, the results were a major setback for his own party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which has dominated both Malay and Malaysian politics since independence in 1957. The immediate cause of UMNO's losses was the fallout from the ouster and jailing of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Problems, however, between UMNO and its rural Malay constituency have been building for years, and the Islamic opposition party Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) has been skilfully exploiting them. Malaysian politics now enters a period of uncertainty, but this should not be confused with instability. While there are dozens of scenarios for the future, we can rule out an 'Islamic revolution,' political instability and violence as well as any transformation in Mahathir's political style. Instead, the future will depend on how four key actors deal with this new and fluid situation: UMNO, the Islamic opposition, the Chinese community and the 'reformers.' A Major Setback for UMNO The first reports of Malaysia's November 29 national elections trumpeted the resounding victory of Prime Minister Mahathir and his National Front or Barisan Nasional (BN), the 14-party coalition that has governed Malaysia since its independence in 1957. Once again, the BN captured more than two-thirds of the seats in Parliament. However, as the party-by-party results came in, it became clear that this election was a major setback for Mahathir's own party UMNO which forms the core of the BN coalition and historically has laid claim to being the true representative of the Malay race. UMNO lost 22 seats in Parliament; and for the first time, it holds less than half the seats in its own coalition. As was widely reported, it owes many of its electoral victories to Chinese and other non-Malay voters. Four UMNO cabinet ministers and four deputy ministers went down to defeat, and both Prime Minister Mahathir and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi saw their 1995 victory margins cut nearly in half. Najib Tun Razak, a senior party leader who often is described as a future prime minister, was re-elected by only 241 votes. The party mounted a major effort to regain the state of Kelantan from the Islamic opposition party PAS, which would have put all states in Malaysia under UMNO's control. Despite this all-out effort, however, UMNO won only two of the 43 seats in Kelantan's state assembly; and in another rout, it lost the state of Terengganu to the opposition for the first time, picking up only four of that state's 32 assembly seats. Things went badly even in Mahathir's home state of Kedah. Before the election, all 15 members of Parliament from Kedah came from UMNO and the BN; now the majority are from PAS. Moreover, for the first time, PAS won seats in the state assemblies in Pahang, Perak and Selangor. There are no exit polls in Malaysia, and voting behaviour is not broken down by ethnicity. Therefore, it is not possible to determine accurately how many Malays voted for UMNO or PAS, but two political analyses of the votes in predominantly Malay districts indicated that UMNO garnered less than half the Malay votes. What Happened to UMNO? It is clear that UMNO has a real problem with its core constituents, the Malays. How did this come about? To hear UMNO President Mahathir tell it, it is a combination of factors, none of which has anything to do with him or UMNO. In an op-ed article written for a Japanese newspaper, he said, in effect, that it is the voters' fault. He blamed the Malay people for being gullible and believing PAS propaganda. He said that they were taken in by sympathy for Dr. Wan Azizah, the wife of the jailed former deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, and the Western liberal ideas that Anwar espouses. He called the Malay people ungrateful for not appreciating what he and his government have done for them. In a curious statement for someone seeking Malay support, he said he does not believe that Malays are a capable people, adding, 'They still need to be given handicaps, given head starts.' More recently, he and his party have launched a search for party 'traitors' and 'backstabbers' who allegedly did not support the party in the November elections. Mahathir's comments aside, the immediate causes for UMNO's losses and the opposition's gains have been covered well in foreign press reporting. These are the developments that followed the sacking of former Deputy Prime Minister AnwarÐthe accusations that Anwar made about cronyism and corruption in Mahathir's government; the launching of the reform movement with its calls for greater freedom; and the cruel, vindictive and therefore un-Malay way that Mahathir set about to discredit Anwar and his political associates. From a tactical point of view, it helped as well that the opposition parties united for the first time, ran on a common platform and agreed on candidates so they would not split their vote. UMNO's problems though go far beyond the so-called Anwar problem and, according to some analysts, have been building for years. Kadir Jasin and Hardev Kaur serve, respectively, as editors of the New Straits Times and the Business Times and generally are regarded by most Malaysians as government mouthpieces. Even so, they have been forthright in saying that this election was a wake-up call for UMNO. Kadir said the problem has a lot to do with UMNO leadership in the Malay heartland and that UMNO's weakening position in the states of Kelantan and Terengganu was apparent even in the 1990 and 1995 elections. He warns that the same signs were evident in Mahathir's home state of Kedah but were ignored. For her part, Hardev warns UMNO that there is no need to blame the opposition for its losses; the real problem is UMNO's failure to identify its weaknesses and change for the future. She notes: 'Malaysians have changed. They are better educated and enjoy a better standard of living and better quality of life. BN and its component parties must move in step, or else they may find themselves being shunned by the very people for whom they have sought and worked hard to bring about progress and development.' The point is that UMNO has been taking its electoral base for granted. Mahathir referred recently to UMNO's arrogance. Yet part of that arrogance, as reflected by Mahathir himself, is the attitude that the 'simple peasantry' should be grateful to its rulers for whatever benefits they receive and that the rulers know what is best for their subjects. While that attitude might have been acceptable in traditional Malay society, back when the sultans held sway over their subjects, voters in today's Malaysia have different attitudes. There is a growing view that UMNO has become a party of the elite, tied too closely to certain big businessmen, and that the concerns of UMNO's leadership are not the concerns of the Malay heartland. One observer described an UMNO youth convention at which delegates were more interested in trading stocks on their cellphones than listening to the speakers. The skyscrapers, hotels and shopping centres of Kuala Lumpur truly are magnificent, but little of their economic benefit has trickled down to the countryside where most of the votes are. Based on this viewpoint, the 'M' in UMNO has come to stand for 'money,' not 'Malay.' Stories are told of UMNO politicians arriving in the villages in their air-conditioned Mercedes Benzes, making speeches on subjects of little interest to their listenersÐlike the evils of the international trade and financial systemÐand then returning to Kuala Lumpur. Meanwhile, PAS was working the villages, showing an interest in what really concerned local residents health, education, family and social issues. Far from being 'radical Islam,' most people would see listening to constituents' concerns as good politics. However, instead of tending to the grassroots, UMNO's leaders at the state level preferred to focus on their personal relationships with the party leadership in Kuala Lumpur. Finally, under UMNO's leadership, the push to advance economically has taken the Malaysian people very far in a very short time. However, as we have seen in other countries, at times of great economic and social change, many people respond by clinging more tightly to religion and traditional values as a personal compass. Some argue that this election shows that Malaysia is becoming more Islamic. I would argue that it means that, in a time of rapid change, many Malaysians are trying to hold on to their sense of being Malay and the values that matter to them as Malays, one of which is Islam. When the opposition charged UMNO with cronyism and corruption, satirised the new prime ministerial residence as the pharaoh's palace and criticised Mahathir's vengeful treatment of Anwar and his associates, it had a resonance among ordinary Malays, who believe that such behaviour is 'un-Malay.' What Happens Next? Malaysian politics is at a crossroads, and one can describe dozens of scenarios for the future. There are some though that we can rule out. First, while Malaysia's political future is fluid, we will not see an Islamic revolution nor will we see violence on the streets of any scale. In fact, whether the opposition feels compelled to take to the streets at all depends far more on the government and whether it will allow all Malaysian citizens the right to express their political views in other ways. Nor will we see political instability. Uncertainty about the futureÐYesÐbut we should not confuse that with instability. No one can predict today who will win the U.S. presidential elections in November 2000. That is uncertainty, not instability. Our inability to predict the future of Malaysian politics does not mean the country is unstable. It is not. Finally, we should not expect to see any chorus of voices from within UMNO, the business community or the press calling on Mahathir to engage in radical reform of UMNO, let alone step down. Mahathir still controls the instruments of state and party power and holds strong sway over the media. Everyone knows how Anwar went privately to Mahathir in June 1998 to call for change, and they also know what happened to Anwar after that. There is no one who dares to make that mistake again. Malaysia does not need to hold elections for another five years; and by then, there will be 1.5 million new votersÐin general, younger, more educated, more sophisticated and more Islamic and that is a sufficient number of voters to tip the electoral scales one way or another. What happens between now and 2004Ðand how the people vote depends on how four major players in Malaysian politics deal with this new and very fluid political situation: UMNO; the Islamic opposition party PAS; the Chinese community, both inside and outside the government; and the reformers, symbolised by Dr. Wan Azizah and her Keadilan Party. While this might seem a Malay struggle, the Chinese community will play one of the critical roles. UMNO For the reasons described earlier, the chances of Mahathir having a political conversion on the way to the UMNO party convention in 2000 are next to nil, as is the likelihood that anyone will dare to approach him and call for change, let alone challenge him in the future. But without change, UMNO will continue to decline. Many people depend on UMNO's continued political strength, not just UMNO's politicians themselves, but also its BN coalition partners and the business community. Thus, this is the supreme irony: everyone knows change is necessary, but no one dares say so to the man who can make it happen. Mahathir has announced that this was his last election; but for others in UMNO, the future still lies ahead. Since reform seems unlikely, perhaps UMNO's younger leaders should work for an 'Empress Dowager solution' paying symbolic homage to the man at the top while working to strengthen their own political base and lay the groundwork for the future. UMNO saved a number of its seats this time thanks to Chinese voters. Over the longer term though, the party that says it is the champion of the Malay struggle will face an image problem and declining support in its key Malay constituency if it is seen as dependent on Chinese votes and financial support and fails to deal with Malay concerns. PAS Having won nearly four times as many parliamentary seats as it held before, PAS now becomes the leader of the opposition. It has a clear goal: to replace UMNO as the leading political party among the Malays and control the government. PAS, however, also has an image problem and a lot of 'political baggage.' Given Malaysian demographics, it will never be able to achieve political power on its own. Its future, therefore, depends on its ability to respect the rights of Malaysia's minorities, who constitute 40 percent of the population, and to moderate its image of being a radical Islamic party. It is not off to a good start after its victory in Terengganu though. It said it would ban gambling and alcohol and restrict the raising and selling of pigs policies hardly designed to assuage the concerns of the Chinese minority, many of whom now must be glad they voted for UMNO and the BN. To make matters worse, PAS said it would impose a religious tax of 10 percent on the business income of non-Muslims. More than the fact that it is a religious tax, it is money, and that strikes directly at Chinese business values. The Chinese Community The struggle for Malaysia's political future is not just between the Malays in UMNO and PAS. The Chinese minority, who constitute nearly 30 percent of Malaysia's population, also will play a critical role. Malaysia's Chinese minority has always had an understanding of sorts with the Malay majority. The Chinese basically are apolitical. They allow UMNO to set the rules and dominate the instruments of state power as long as UMNO lets them do what they want in their own 'private space' make money, speak their language, practice their customs and educate their children in Chinese. Chinese newspapers have greater freedom to comment on current events than do the English and Malay press. In the old days, the Chinese business community reportedly helped bankroll UMNO; and in return, UMNO let them 'do their own thing.' The Chinese political parties are supposed to ensure that these rights are protected. The Chinese, however, have shown little interest in the problems of the Malay community; and until now, they also have been able to take UMNO's political dominance for granted. During my time as ambassador, I found that my own limited knowledge of Islam often exceeded that of the Chinese I met, who had lived among the Malays their whole lives but ignored their concerns. The future of Malay politics the struggle between UMNO and PAS will depend to a large extent on whether the Chinese community moves more into the political arena to concern itself with the problems of its Malay brothers and sisters. Put in negative terms, it is whether the Chinese business community, fearful of a PAS victory, is willing to tell its UMNO political patrons that change is required. The Chinese opposition party, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), paid a heavy price for its alliance with the Islamic opposition party PAS. The DAP is now trying to serve as a brake on PAS actions that seem too 'radical' and disrespectful of Chinese rights. Likewise, it will be interesting to watch the actions of the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the major Chinese party led by Dr. Ling Liong Sik that serves as UMNO's largest coalition partner. If UMNO 'goes down,' they are likely to go down with it. How will they respond to the challenge that UMNO faces, which now is a challenge to them as well? The Reformers The reformers are symbolised by former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar, his wife Dr. Wan Azizah and their Keadilan Party. While they gained only five parliamentary seats, including one for Dr. Azizah, they managed to capture 11.5 percent of the national vote in their first election. That is not even 4 percent less than the total vote for PAS, which was heralded as one of the 'victors' in the elections. With a seat in Parliament, the highly intelligent and charismatic Azizah now has an official position from which to advance the ideals that she and her husband have long espoused. Her task, however, is twofold: to patiently build a grassroots political organisation for the future and to differentiate herself and her party from PAS, which is more than happy to capitalise on her popularity and charisma. A Final Comment The irony of Malaysia's political situation today is that the person best able to deal with the challenge that PAS poses to UMNO the man who could reconcile the needs of modernisation with Islam and the traditions of rural Malay society, who could appeal to a new generation of Malaysians and who would champion the policies to help those who have not benefited from Malaysia's economic advance is in jail. UMNO's leader, Mahathir Mohamed, has cast out UMNO's saviour, Anwar Ibrahim, and that simple fact has created tomorrow's uncertainty.