The Voice
of the Free Indian
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US and China dance with India
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THURSDAY, APRIL 19, 2001
WORLD
US and China dance with India
· As their own relationship is tested, two powers court
the world's largest democracy.
By Scott Baldauf (baldaufs@csps.com)
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
NEW DELHI
At the height of the two-week standoff with China over a US reconnaissance
plane, President Bush took time to give a visitor a tour of the
White House Oval Office. The visitor was Jaswant Singh, foreign
minister and defense minister of India, China's longtime rival
that three years ago joined the Nuclear Club.
Sure, it could have been a coincidence. Or it could have been
a none-too-subtle signal to China that the US intends to extend
its reach in Asia right up to the edge of China's backyard.
"The US knows the Chinese are watching the US-India relationship
warming over the last few years, and Bush used it at a critical
moment," says Kanti Bajpai, a disarmament-studies professor
at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi. "India knew they
were being used, but they milked it for what it's worth."
Call it the politics of balance. As the Bush administration shifts
China from its "partner" column to its "competitor"
column, there appears to be a growing appreciation among top US
officials for the democratic values and strategic goals India
shares with the US. Simultaneously, China has been making moves
of its own toward India, offering further talks on longtime border
disputes.
It may not be time to predict a full strategic alliance with
either the US or China, but the sudden attractiveness of India
appears certain to slowly but radically shift the power balance
in an area of influence shared by all three countries that stretches
from the Persian Gulf to the Pacific Ocean.
In an interview in the Hindu, a prominent Indian newspaper, departing
US Ambassador Richard Celeste indicated that the Bush administration
seemed eager to work more closely with India not just on trade
issues, but on strategic ones as well. He noted that a senior
Bush administration official had told him that India had "earned
a place at the table" of global players.
Enhanced military cooperation is just the first step - including
the exchange of military and technical advisers, the transfer
of high-tech weaponry, and joint military exercises - before a
strategic alliance could be formed, security and diplomatic experts
say.
Even so, there are some initial signs of a growing US-India relationship.
For one thing, while the Clinton administration waited years
to fill the US ambassadorship in India, the Bush administration
announced its planned appointment of Robert Blackwill within a
month of taking office. Diplomats here say the selection of Mr.
Blackwill, senior State Department strategist on Chinese and nuclear
proliferation issues, indicates the White House considers South
Asia to be a top-priority region.
Over the next few months, a veritable who's who of Bush officials
could be visiting India. President Bush and members of his cabinet
have accepted Foreign Minister Singh's invitations to visit India,
but lower down, the flurry of visits could be even more intense.
Behind the scenes, there will be even more talks - and a number
of Congressional bills - on removing the biggest hurdle to closer
US-India ties. With India resistant to signing the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty, trade sanctions specifically targeting industries
that provide nuclear technology and dual-use technologies were
imposed by Congress after India tested nuclear devices in 1998.
In any case, the current US-India relationship is a far cry from
the days when India was a left-leaning state that bought Soviet
weaponry and preached against the evils of Western (read US) imperialism.
What the US would gain from a cozier arrangement, Indian strategic
experts say, is a bulwark against Chinese expansionism and Islamic
fundamentalism in Central Asia, as well as an advocate for democratic
governance in South Asia. What India gains is prestige, security,
and a potentially growing role on the international stage.
"In isolation, the US cannot ensure stability in Asia without
working with us," says Adm. K.K. Nayyar, former chief of
Indian naval operations. "The thing is, you require a counterweight
in dealing with the Muslim world. We are the second-largest Muslim
country ..., and we represent a relatively more modern, moderate
Islamic world view."
Although India and China accuse each other of fomenting and supporting
revolution within its borders, (India in Chinese-ruled Tibet,
and China in Indian-ruled Assam and Nagaland), China has begun
to trade maps with India over their disputed border from Kashmir
to Burma, a marked improvement over trading artillery rounds.
Just in the past 50 years, India and China have fought one war
and a handful of skirmishes over the area. Trade between India
and China has risen from $200 million a year to $2.5 billion in
the past 10 years.
"China and India realize they have interests in each other's
stability," says Kanti Bajpai, the disarmament-studies professor
at JNU. "We have got a series of confidence-building measures,
we have trade relations. We would jeopardize all that if we moved
too fast toward a strategic relationship with the US and joined
the anti-China bandwagon."
In addition to continuing disagreements over India's development
and testing of nuclear weapons, other obstructions to a closer
US-India strategic alliance include India's much-stated desire
for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. In addition,
the US will have to break the traditional mindset of viewing India
primarily in light of its other hostile neighbor, Pakistan, which
was a close US ally during the cold-war years. Now, the US will
have to begin thinking of India on its own terms.
"We have been through this dance before several times now,
but it's never quite happened," says Steve Cohen, a senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "As the
US, we don't have enough experience to treat India as a strategic
partner. And from the Indian standpoint, they don't want to be
in a position where we [the US] fight China to the last Indian."
One US official agrees that closer ties with the South Asian
giant are inevitable, after sanctions are removed. But, he adds:
"A strategic partnership is something that takes time to
develop. You don't just add water and, boom, you've got one."
It may be years away from reaching maturity, but there is an
unmistakable giddiness in the air over the prospect. "It's
like boy meets girl. We have tried to hold hands, but the kissing
hasn't started," says S. K. Singh, former foreign secretary
under Indira Gandhi, 1969-74. "Earlier, we were glaring at
each other."
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