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'Vulnerable'Indonesia Leader Warns Country Could Fall Apart
By Patrick Goodenough, CNSNews.com Pacific Rim Bureau Chief
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - Indonesia, torn by ethnic and religious splits, could go the way of the Balkans, President Megawati Sukarnoputri has warned, and she appealed to various elements of society to stop undermining the country's fragile unity.
"If we allow this to continue, you can be sure that we as a nation will soon perish," she said on Sunday at a function in Jakarta commemorating the day in 1928 when young Indonesians vowed to build a single, independent nation in the Dutch-ruled archipelago.
"We will split into lots of small races, into lots of small countries all of which will be weak in the face of outside forces."
The world's fourth most populous country could become the "Balkans of the east," Megawati told the gathering, a situation that could pose a danger to the wider region.
Megawati told her audience that a feeling of insecurity resulting from a breakdown of law of order has led some foreign investors to plan on pulling out.
Breakaway movements of various strength exist in Aceh, Irian Jaya, Maluku, Sulawesi, Riau and Kalimantan provinces. Clashes between Christians and Muslims in Maluku have cost thousands of lives in recent years.
Members of the armed forces have been accused of violating human rights in these areas, and in the Maluku case of taking sides in the bloody civil war.
Law and order has recently suffered in larger centers, where militant Muslims angered by the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan following the September 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. have threatened foreigners.
"Riots and violence should be stopped by everyone," Megawati said. "We have to restore and guarantee a feeling of security for all people residing in this country, be they citizens of the Republic of Indonesia or foreigners."
The president also cited decades of dishonesty, corruption and nepotism, which she said had become so ingrained, some accepted it as part of Indonesian culture.
"It's now considered normal to violate the regulations and some people even feel proud about doing so."
Because of its size and strategic location, Indonesia is seen as an increasingly important player in southeast Asia. But analysts say the young democracy is under threat from corruption as well as Islamic militancy stirred up by tensions in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Megawati's appeal came on the 98th day since she assumed office after her predecessor, Abdurrahman Wahid, was ousted by lawmakers.
Although she has managed to attract more foreign backing than had Wahid, she faces fierce criticism by legislators and others, as corruption continues amid little apparent success in curbing it.
The U.S. military action in Afghanistan and angry reaction from some militant groups, has also pulled her government in two directions. Threats against westerners have threatened to further undermine investor confidence, as have calls for Jakarta to cut all ties with Washington.
American oil companies ExxonMobil and Unocal are among those that closed their Jakarta offices earlier this month, and several Western governments have advised their citizens to reconsider traveling to Indonesia.
Indonesia is also being affected by a tourism slump following Sept. 11. Between the day of the New York and Washington attacks and October 1, around 6,000 reservations on the resort island of Bali were cancelled. Falling tourism revenues will add to the crisis in a country whose external debt last year exceeded 22 percent of its gross domestic product.
'Vulnerable'
Dr. Greg Fealy of the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University, said Monday Megawati was a nationalist leader who has long expressed concerns about separatist threats to Indonesian unity.
"That concern may have been heightened in the light of recent Muslim demonstrations against the U.S. and the attacks on Afghanistan," he said by phone from Canberra.
Most analysts would agree, however, that Indonesia was not in serious danger of falling apart. "There are certainly tensions and stresses on the social fabric, but the situation has actually eased in some areas," he said.
Fealy thought the government had handled opposition to the U.S. military strikes well. The protests had been kept in check, threats of expulsion of foreigners had diminished, and U.S. installations were being kept secure by police.
Ideally, Megawati would have come into office without the type of challenge posed by the terrorist attacks and U.S. reaction, he said.
"This is almost the worst case scenario for Megawati, an issue which on the one hand could sour U.S.-Indonesian relations - because she needs U.S. aid in order to revive the economy, that's ultimately what her re-election chances hinge upon - and on the other hand she's vulnerable on Islamic issues."
Nonetheless, he felt, the president had got the compromise between supporting the U.S. and not upsetting Muslim elements "about right," he said.
"She's containing Islamic anger toward the U.S. at the moment. But it all depends on what happens next. If they start bombing other Muslim countries or send in ground forces - escalating the U.S. response could well escalate the Muslim response and therefore make Megawati's position more difficult."
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