HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME?

Although this site is primarily about warfare in Afghanistan, it will also be about guerrilla and 4th generation/asymmetric warfare and it’s success against conventional military powers. Although no one can accurately predict the future, this kind of warfare has allowed third world nations and sub-national groups to defeat the two biggest military powers on the planet. Iraq chose to invade Kuwait and fight the west in a conventional war in the early 1990s. Saddam did survive but their army was easily defeated and sent back to Iraq a lot smaller then when they invaded Kuwait. It can safely be assumed that no reasonable enemy would choose to fight the U.S. or the west in general, in a conventional war at this time. In the Les Grau and Michael Gress book, "THE SOVIET-AFGHAN WAR: How A Superpower Fought And Lost", the authors made this final comment:

"It is easy to dismiss the Soviet failure in Afghanistan, but it is not wise. Armies seldom get to chose the wars in which they fight and this type of difficult war is as likely a future conflict as a war involving high-technology systems in which the sides seldom get close enough to see each other. Russia continues to fight guerrilla wars. Other nations may also have to." (Page 314)

Introduction

Table of Contents

Geographical Factors

Socio-Political Factors

Tactics

Weapons

Equipment

Predictions of Future Events

References


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